Original Title: The Forgotten Phase: Why the Crypto Market Might Be Stuck Between Cycles
Original Author: Christina Comben, The Coin Republic
Original Translation: BitpushNews
Key Points:
· The cryptocurrency market may be neither in a bull nor a bear market, but rather in a "forgotten mid-phase," similar to the calm period after the end of quantitative tightening in 2019, which often heralds the beginning of a new upward trend.
· The Federal Reserve's end of quantitative tightening policy, along with similar levels of market risk scoring, indicates that the crypto market is in a consolidation phase rather than a precursor to a crash.
· Despite short-term volatility, pro-crypto regulatory policies, the launch of ETFs, and large-scale institutional adoption make the market foundation for 2025 far more solid than in 2019.
Current Market Status: An Indefinable State
"Is it a bull market or a bear market?" — This most hotly debated question in the crypto market may no longer be applicable by the end of 2025. As traders and analysts attempt to label the current market, they find it resists simple definitions.
Crypto prices have failed to replicate the parabolic rise of 2021, yet they are far from the despair typical of a true bear market. So, what exactly is happening?
Crypto trader Dan Gambardello interprets this as us possibly being in the "forgotten chapter" of the cycle.
This calm phase mirrors the period from July to September 2019: at that time, the market was consolidating, the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening, and the crypto market seemed to be in a strange stagnation before brewing its next big move.
The Ghost of 2019
Looking back at crypto news from July 2019: The Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening, marking a subtle yet significant change in global liquidity.
A few months later, in September, the policy tightening officially ceased. This paved the way for a subsequent mild rise, ultimately triggering the market explosion of 2020-2021.
Today, history seems to be repeating itself. The Federal Reserve has once again announced it will end quantitative tightening in December 2025. In both periods, macro liquidity has begun to shift, but market confidence in crypto prices has yet to catch up.
"The news of the end of QT has just been announced," Gambardello stated in a video, "This is neither the peak of a bull market nor the bottom of a bear market, but rather a vague area in between."
This "intermediate state" is often overlooked in crypto news, yet it is precisely the key phase for a cycle reset. In 2019, Bitcoin's risk score hovered around 42, almost identical to the current score of 43. Although prices differ, market sentiment exhibits a similar uncertainty.
Crypto Market Risk Indicators and the Value of Patience
"If you believe that the end of QT will bring a liquidity boost, consider gradually building positions during any pullbacks before December 2025," Gambardello advised.
He developed an AI-driven system called "Zero" that suggests rational capital deployment, identifying risk areas rather than chasing market momentum.
He pointed out that Ethereum's risk model score in 2019 was 11, while it is now 44. Cardano's score is 29. These numbers, derived from volatility and sentiment data, help macro investors plan accumulation areas rather than trading volatility emotionally.
If the score falls back to the 30 or 20 range, it could present the accumulation opportunity long-term holders dream of.
Glassnode data supports this pattern. During mid-term consolidation, the supply of long-term holders typically increases as speculative traders exit.
In 2019, long-term holders of Bitcoin accounted for over 644% of circulating supply; in 2025, this number is again approaching similar levels. Patience seems to be the secret weapon of calm investors.
Chart Source: studio.glassnode.com
What the Chart Reveals
On the Ethereum weekly chart, the trend shows striking similarities. In July 2019, shortly after the end of QT, Ethereum tested its 20-week moving average, rebounding before dipping again, only to truly recover months later.
This summer, the same 20-50 week moving average crossover occurred again; this reminds us that cycles are always pulled between hope and exhaustion.
Gambardello explained that a signal to watch will be whether Ethereum can break through the 20-week moving average. This is a short-term confirmation signal for determining whether the market will repeat the 2019 trend.
Otherwise, a temporary drop in total market capitalization to the $3 trillion range (compared to the current $3.6 trillion shown on CoinMarketCap) may replay the script of that year: a decline sufficient to scare off retail investors, but not enough to end the upward trend.
A Different Decade, the Same Market Psychology
Of course, 2025 is not a simple replication of 2019. The headlines in crypto news are already different, and the macro stage has undergone significant changes.
A pro-crypto U.S. government has taken office. The "Clarity Act" and the "GENIUS Act" have essentially ended the regulatory uncertainty that once kept investors awake at night. Ethereum ETFs are now trading.
Stablecoin issuers are under regulation. BlackRock now firmly holds $25 billion in crypto ETF assets.
This institutional power will not disappear overnight. Instead, it has changed the market's rhythm, transforming a market that once operated on adrenaline into a domain managed by spreadsheets and stress tests.
What we may be witnessing is not another bull or bear market, but rather a more subtle shift: a transitional phase within a larger monetary climate system.
The Federal Reserve's liquidity shift, the appointment of a new chair before May, and the normalization of regulation may collectively make 2025 a quiet preparation period before the next rise.
Gambardello does not believe we are entering a bear market, but rather are in a "frustrating consolidation phase."
Yes, it is frustrating. But perhaps it is necessary. If the 2019 crypto market taught us anything, it is that boredom often precedes breakthroughs.
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