Chaos is the norm in this market; there is no order, but there are still patterns within the disorder. You need to have your own system and execute it, allowing logic to replace emotion, in order to achieve good results in this battlefield.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. It has been a while since the last update; I have been busy with trading operations. Some fans have urged me to update, so today I will briefly share my views on the current market situation. I am very grateful to all the friends who have consistently supported and followed my article analysis, and I hope the ideas in this article can be helpful.

Today, I will only discuss the trend and general direction of Bitcoin; these are predictions and for reference only. Those who are doing intraday short trading do not need to waste time reading this. Since the end of the National Day holiday, the market has violently dropped, creating an oversold spike, followed by more than 20 days of large-range fluctuations, and once again breaking below the low point, with a false break at the 100,000 mark, hitting 98,888. In about a month, the drop from the high to the low is nearly 30,000 dollars. As for the reasons for the decline, the macro-level market information has been discussed, from the initial concerns about S, the U.S. government shutdown, hacker attacks, and insider theft, leading to too much uncertainty. Long-term holders, whales, and institutions have sold off, and market risk aversion is inevitable.

There are many voices in the market claiming that Trump is harvesting in the crypto space. In fact, Trump is a double-edged sword for the crypto market. He is indeed harvesting, but if we think from another perspective, would Bitcoin have reached its current height without his presidency? Perhaps it would have, but not so quickly. Gege believes that his influence on the crypto market is more beneficial than harmful. Therefore, if Trump is ousted or removed from office, the crypto market will inevitably be affected. The current market is a game between institutions; only when institutions start buying again can the market be driven up. The premise for institutions to regain confidence is that Trump must handle the current situation well, and the subsequent interest rate cuts and monetary easing from the Federal Reserve should be timely.

Currently, there are many discussions in the market about entering a bear market. Looking at historical cycles, the current time node does resemble previous ones. In the last cycle, Bitcoin halved in 2020, and the bull market peaked in November 2021. The technical monthly candlestick patterns also indicate a potential peak (death spiral).

In terms of the drop of around 30,000 dollars, Gege believes that this price fluctuation for Bitcoin is normal, as the unit price is higher than before. This sharp decline can be seen as a liquidation of long positions, a washout. The overall weekly candlestick structure is still above the upward trend line. Now, let me share my views and predictions on bull and bear markets. Although the weekly structure is above the trend line, the MACD's double line death cross still needs further release. Therefore, I define the 90,000 mark as the boundary between bull and bear markets. If the upcoming market does not break below 90,000, or even does not break below 100,000 in a substantial way, and if the subsequent rebound can stabilize above 110,000, then this round of decline is merely a liquidation washout, followed by a bull tail market, with a high point around 131,000. If the upcoming market rebounds but only stabilizes around 110,000, followed by another fluctuation downwards or continued sideways decline, and eventually breaks below 90,000, then if the rebound cannot stabilize above 100,000, the probability of entering a bear market will be very high. The above is my personal view on bull and bear markets; friends with similar thoughts can refer to the above predictions to observe the subsequent market trends and wait for market validation.

The suggestions are for reference only. Please manage your risk when entering the market, and control your profit and stop-loss spaces accordingly. Specific strategies should be based on real-time conditions, and you can consult for advice.

Alright, friends, we will see you next time. I wish everyone success and smooth sailing in the crypto space! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice, find Gege.

Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.

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