Ethereum #Bitcoin #Ethereum Real-time Analysis #Bitcoin Real-time Analysis

Hello everyone, I am Lao Lü. Yesterday's article can be considered a technical teaching piece, focusing on the expected head and shoulders pattern for Bitcoin and the double top M pattern for Ethereum. Unfortunately, the technical patterns did not play out as anticipated, so we did not successfully position ourselves. Let's first review a few technical points and application methods mentioned in the previous article. On the hourly chart for Bitcoin, a bearish head and shoulders pattern appeared. The prerequisite for this short position is that the price must break the neckline support, which is at $86,000. It's a bit unfortunate that at 8 PM last night, a bearish candle was about to break the critical support at $86,000, but at 9 PM, a large bullish candle held it up! The neckline was not broken. Therefore, we emphasize that the only condition for the validity of this bearish pattern for Bitcoin is that the price breaks $86,000 and a significant number of bearish candles appear below $86,000. Our analysis principle is very simple: it is purely based on candlestick patterns, as candlesticks themselves represent price action, and price action reflects market sentiment. It is evident that the market sentiment is bullish for Bitcoin. The analysis of the technical points in the previous article is very detailed, containing my personal analysis logic and thoughts. If anyone wants to learn about technical aspects, I recommend unlocking and studying it. Although this neckline was not successfully broken, it can still be applied next time when such a pattern appears. Technical knowledge is accumulated bit by bit.

In the previous article, we emphasized a key point in the Bitcoin section: the current upper pressure for Bitcoin is at $88,300, and the lower support has moved up to $86,000, leaving very little space. What follows is waiting for a significant move. Remember, during these two days, set your stop-loss. This is Lao Lü's exact words. The reason for setting a stop-loss is that we are unsure whether the price will break upwards or downwards. At that moment, I believe no one would dare to guarantee 100% that the price will rise or fall significantly. Respecting the market is the first lesson in investing.

Additionally, I need to emphasize that the time of publication for each of Lao Lü's articles will be noted at the bottom of the article. Yesterday, we provided an aggressive strategy to short Bitcoin at $87,800, with a small stop-loss at $88,500. I wrote the article at 2 PM yesterday and published it at 2:30 PM, when the price was around $87,400. Therefore, we considered waiting until $87,800 to short. By 3:30-4 PM, the price indeed reached a maximum entry point of $87,900, and it did drop to the support level of $86,266, close to our proposed support level of $86,000. The reason for mentioning this is that a fan friend told me late at night that he lost money shorting at $87,800 as I suggested. I realized he only saw our article at 1 AM today and entered the market after reading it! Therefore, when reading articles, everyone must pay attention to the time at the bottom and check if the price has reached that level. After reaching that price, see if the trend has completed. Lao Lü often emphasizes that all strategies can only be used once because the first technical trigger is the safest and most practical. The probability of a price testing and breaking a level repeatedly is higher. For example, the $88,300 level has been touched at least five times in the last three days without breaking. Today, it finally broke, and the first drop after the first touch was the largest, with subsequent drops becoming smaller. Therefore, I only suggest making trades on the first touch; for the second touch, just observe.

Currently, based on the behavior of both cryptocurrencies this week, it is highly likely to experience a rise followed by a drop. Since the rebound low point has consistently shown this trend, we must be cautious. Looking at the previous oscillation and drop trend, we should avoid using small cycle support.

Bitcoin has shown a relatively strong pattern, mainly because it has stabilized above $88,300. The price is also clearly stronger than Ethereum in terms of hourly chart patterns and space. Given the current strength, chasing the price directly is definitely risky, especially since we are close to the weekly close. This is a rebound within a downtrend, not a strong rise on the daily chart. Therefore, I have not made any long positions and must guard against profit-taking sell-offs from high positions. The support level below is around $88,400, which is the small top we mentioned earlier. However, the highest price has reached around $91,800. If it tests $88,400, today’s daily candle will definitely be a large bearish candle, and tomorrow the price may not recover. Therefore, today’s bullish outlook is definitely aggressive; waiting for a small pullback is sufficient, ideally around the second drop point at $89,500 for a potential rise. I continue to watch the densely packed support area on the hourly chart around $89,800. Currently, Bitcoin's highest price is $91,830. As long as the price does not continue to break higher, our strategy remains valid. Now, if the four-hour chart does not show a bearish candle, we may see a slow oscillation with bullish candles. However, the reason we are not chasing the price directly is mainly due to the fact that since November 21, although the price has risen, it has not been a continuous rise; after breaking a high, it has dropped by about 60%. Therefore, it is difficult to set a stop-loss after chasing the price. If the price does not pull back and continues to break higher above $92,500, just pay attention to Lao Lü's next analysis. At the same time, $92,500 is also a strong resistance within the channel.

Ethereum is slightly weaker in terms of pattern. Currently, Bitcoin has shown a bearish candle on the hourly chart without significant pullbacks, and the $5,000 increase in Bitcoin has only driven Ethereum up by less than $200, with a ratio of less than 1:0.5. Therefore, if Bitcoin pulls back slightly, we cannot rule out the possibility of Ethereum accelerating its decline. This is something we need to consider. Thus, for the next long positions, we must stay close to the critical support limit. Let’s lock in the support level, which will be the dividing line for future long and short positions: $2,925. The hourly price must not break this level with a large bearish candle. If we see $2,900, we definitely cannot go long anymore, and we must return to a short strategy. Of course, we must always maintain foresight regarding price movements. Preparing in advance will prevent us from being flustered. Meanwhile, the key support level at $3,000 is also crucial for those chasing the price. If the price rises strongly like Bitcoin, it definitely will not break this level. My approach remains conservative and steady. Long position entry point: $2,956, with the principle of holding above $2,925. Therefore, I suggest setting the stop-loss at $2,910. If we win, the target is $3,050, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2. The current highest price is $3,069. The reason for the target being $3,050 is that we cannot rule out the possibility of the price forming a double top oscillation after a surge, referencing the movement from $2,850 to $2,980. Additionally, similar to Bitcoin, if the price does not pull back in advance but continues to rise, we will wait for the next analysis.

Bitcoin: Long at $89,700, Short at $88,700, Target $92,500

Ethereum: Long at $2,956, Short at $2,910, Target $3,050

Today: Written by Lao Lü on November 27, 2025, at 5:38 PM. Note that all strategies are valid for one-time use only and cannot be reused! Check the text version and specific entry prices in the bottom right corner of the image or video.

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