The "Truant" is a typical case of being bullish when the market rises and bearish when it falls. When the market goes up, they chase the highs, and when it goes down, they hesitate to buy. Essentially, this reflects a misunderstanding of the market. I don't intend for everyone to study monetary policy or the political situation in the U.S., but it is important to have a general understanding of these topics to avoid the mindset that rising prices are due to market manipulation and falling prices are due to market dumping.

Especially for $BTC and leading U.S. stocks, many friends feel that my analysis of declines is just looking for reasons after the fact, trying to force connections. In reality, for me personally, it is about refining my logic in market judgment. If you had asked me in May of this year whether Bitcoin would drop below $80,000, I would have said it was impossible unless there was an economic recession.

This reflects a narrow judgment because I overlooked the complexity of financial assets. As a result, the U.S.-China tariffs were imposed again, several geopolitical conflicts occurred, and the Federal Reserve's monetary strategy has been consistent. Even the government shutdown, which broke historical records, led to a liquidity shortage. All these combined factors have an impact on the risk market.

However, the most essential influence is to grasp the main line. As long as you hold onto the main line, although it may not be possible to perfectly time the market top, at least you can roughly estimate when to buy the dip during a decline.

For example, this time's buying opportunity was clearly indicated by Williams' speech last Friday, which directly reversed investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in December. The decline was driven by Powell's expectation of no rate cut in December.

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