The overall trend of the US stock market is relatively strong. Historically, the performance of US stocks in December tends to be poorer due to companies selling stocks to pay year-end taxes. Currently, the market is in a high-level consolidation phase, so we will pay attention to the strength of breaking through previous highs. The bottom of the range I mentioned earlier must not be broken.
Gold is approaching its previous high, and there should be new highs during the New Year period. However, for those who did not make long-term arrangements earlier, entering the market now would be considered chasing the price. Silver has pulled back 30 to 40 points since we alerted about breaking through decades-high points.
Bitcoin has seen three consecutive monthly declines, with the MACD fast and slow lines crossing. In a broader sense, there is a downtrend, but there is a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin
The weekly chart continues to form a doji star, which has been the case for four weeks. The MACD histogram on the weekly chart is shortening, while the daily MACD shows signs of upward momentum. In the short term, we are looking at a rebound, with recent resistance at 91,000. If it can break through, there is a chance to reach 95,000.
The Chinese New Year red envelope market has been captured every year since 2020, so we still believe there will be one this year as well. There are usually some market movements from January to February, but by March, we need to be particularly cautious as the risks tend to increase.
Support: 80,600—84,450
Resistance: 95,000—102,000
Ethereum
The monthly chart has also shown a top divergence, with the fast and slow lines nearing a crossover. The MACD histogram on the weekly chart is shortening, and the fast and slow lines show an upward trend. This is similar to Bitcoin; despite the monthly MACD fast and slow lines forming a death cross, it does not prevent a short-term rebound of several dozen points on the daily chart. This viewpoint can be further analyzed in the video. After the rebound, it is expected to continue declining.
Currently, the daily chart's rebound is still relatively weak, but three sets of bottom support have appeared. We will observe the strength of the rebound and focus on breaking the downward trend line. In the short term, we are also looking at a rebound. The first resistance is at 3,450, the second at 3,600, and the third at 4,200.
Support: 2,620—2,700
Resistance: 3,450—3,600—4,200
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
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