Author: Blockchain Knight

The funding data for Bitcoin ETFs presents a stark contrast; some sensational headlines have exaggerated the arrival of a sell-off wave, but the core data reveals more of a technical adjustment rather than a long-term withdrawal.

Currently, although the market is under cyclical pressure, investors have unrealized losses of about $100 billion, miners are reducing their hash power, and corporate treasury stock prices are below the book value of Bitcoin, the ETF market does not show signs of an apocalypse.

Checkonchain data shows that although 60% of ETF fund inflows occurred during price increases, the assets under management of Bitcoin-denominated ETFs have only seen a 2.5% outflow (about $4.5 billion), which is relatively small compared to the total fund size.

The key point is that these fund outflows are synchronized with the reduction of open contracts in CME futures and IBIT options, confirming that it is a structural liquidation of basis or volatility trading, rather than a collapse of market confidence.

Last week, fund flows exhibited bidirectional fluctuations, with net flows switching between inflows and outflows, showing no signs of a continuous multi-day decline or a bank run. The trading volume fluctuations have continued to decline, essentially indicating a position adjustment rather than a withdrawal. Bitcoin prices also experienced bidirectional oscillations during the same period, indicating that ETF fund flows are not the dominant factor.

The derivatives market further supports this judgment, as CME futures open contracts have decreased from $16 billion at the beginning of November to $10.94 billion, with risks continuing to decrease.

Although the total global futures open contracts still stand at $59.24 billion, CME and BN each account for $10.9 billion, with a balanced distribution, reflecting that the market is reallocating risks to different venues and instruments rather than engaging in a comprehensive sell-off.

The core focus of the market is concentrated on three major price support levels. $82,000 (the real market average and ETF cost) is the critical point for whether the rebound can continue; $74,500 (Strategy holding cost) tests the narrative tension of the market; if the $70,000 level is lost, it may trigger widespread panic in a bear market.

At the same time, the current market liquidity is uneven, and in a tense environment, it can amplify or diminish the impact of fund flows.

The key to determining whether the market is shifting from consolidation to capitulation lies in distinguishing between technical outflows and genuine withdrawals.

Fund outflows synchronized with the reduction of open contracts are considered technical adjustments; if there is a continuous large-scale outflow that weakens asset size, while open contracts remain stable or increase, it signals the establishment of new short positions and long liquidations.

Currently, the market appears to be more "shrinking" rather than "collapsing," and attention should be focused on changes in hedging positions, the resilience of key price levels, and the order book's ability to absorb.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。