Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
On December 13, Coinbase Markets announced on the X platform that Lighter would be included in its listing roadmap; on December 21, the Lighter team officially announced on Discord that users must complete airdrop address registration by December 26; on December 23, Binance launched pre-trading for Lighter (LIT) perpetual contracts. Multiple key milestones have been densely reached, and market expectations for Lighter's upcoming TGE have rapidly increased.
On-chain data further confirms this judgment. On December 20, the Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT to a new address (0x98e7769167194A8Cf272B649319676bE84052b5f); this morning, the address has distributed different amounts of tokens to 20 addresses, with a single transaction of up to about 3.1 million and a minimum of about 9,820 tokens, currently still holding about 230 million LIT. Although the official has not disclosed the specific use of this batch of tokens, the community generally speculates that they may be used for airdrop-related distributions.
It is worth noting that the 250 million LIT accounts for exactly 25% of the total token supply, which is highly consistent with the previous community speculation that "25% of the share is used for airdrops," further reinforcing the market's judgment that Lighter is about to complete its TGE.
Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT to a new address
In terms of timing expectations, members who participated in the Lighter Japan AMA previously reported that the TGE time may fall between December 24 and January 1 of next year; in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "When will Lighter conduct TGE", December 29 has the highest probability, currently around 75%.
Polymarket prediction event "When will Lighter conduct TGE"
Lighter's perpetual contract trading volume ranks first in the Perp Dex track over the past 30 days
Lighter is a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum Layer 2 (L2), aiming to combine the speed and liquidity of centralized exchanges (CEX) with the security and transparency of decentralized exchanges (DEX).
According to DeFiLlama data, in the past 30 days, Lighter has led with approximately $232.3 billion in perpetual contract trading volume, ahead of Aster ($195.5 billion) and Hyperliquid ($182 billion), ranking first in the Perp Dex track.
Perp Dex track perpetual contract trading volume ranking
In addition, Lighter's TVL has continued to rise in recent months, currently surpassing $1.4 billion, exceeding Aster ($1.27 billion).
Lighter TVL data
If Aster is backed by Binance, then Lighter is backed by Ethereum. As Lighter CEO Vladimir Novakovski previously commented on the X platform, “Becoming an L1 is a bug, not a feature.”
Lighter CEO comments on Lighter's choice to pursue a modular L2 route
Lighter does not choose a closed architecture like HyperLiquid's self-built L1, but instead focuses on "Ethereum-native composability": the LLP Token can circulate on the mainnet and collaborate with DeFi protocols like Aave, thus enjoying a low-cost, low-latency, verifiable execution environment in an open ecosystem. In other words, Lighter's goal is to allow any protocol to reuse its matching engine and capital system. Lighter does not aim to replace Ethereum but to evolve alongside it, becoming the underlying engine for high-performance finance on-chain.
Lighter valuation and pre-trading pricing
According to Binance's pre-trading for perpetual contracts, the LIT price started at $3.9, slowly declined, and is currently reported at $3.2, calculating at the current price, Lighter's fully diluted valuation (FDV) is approximately $3.2 billion.
If 25% of the total token supply is used for future airdrops, under the premise of a total score of 12 million, then each score corresponds to about 20.8 LIT. Based on the current pre-trading price, each score is valued at approximately $66.
Valuation range judgments from market participants
Crypto KOL ingalvarez.sol (@ingalvarezsol) has made predictions about Lighter's valuation based on factors such as Polymarket, OTC score prices, and the pre-trading price of the LIT token:
- $1.5 billion: the lowest valuation in a pessimistic scenario, corresponding to a token price of about $1.5;
- $3–4.2 billion: the bear market baseline range, corresponding to a token price of about $3 to $4;
- $7.5–12.5 billion: optimistic scenario, corresponding to a token price of about $7.5 to $12.5;
Another early Lighter user, Chuk (@chuk_xyz), has also made predictions based on Lighter's TVL, trading volume, revenue, and other data:
- Bear market range ($1.5–4.2 billion FDV): If the price operates within this range after TGE, it can be seen as an opportunity zone. The psychological pressure of holding airdrop tokens is the lowest, and the risk-reward ratio is the clearest;
- Baseline range ($4.2–7.5 billion FDV): If Lighter can stabilize its TVL and maintain a leading scale, this range can be seen as fair value. Once the price enters this range, it is suitable for phased profit-taking while retaining some positions;
- Bull market range ($7.5–12.5 billion+ FDV): This range indicates that core catalysts have been fully priced in by the market, including RWA momentum strengthening and distribution narratives (fintech/broker alignment) forming consensus, making this stage more suitable for continuous reduction during the upward process.
In the Polymarket prediction event "Lighter's FDV one day after launch", the probability of an FDV exceeding $1 billion is as high as 88%, and the probability of exceeding $2 billion FDV is also 83%.
Polymarket event "Lighter's FDV one day after launch"
Overall, the market's lowest expectation for Lighter's opening valuation is an FDV of $1.5 billion, corresponding to a token price of $1.5. Therefore, if the opening price falls, $1.5 would be an ideal short-term bottom price.
Do not "pop the champagne halfway," always pay attention to official updates
For early users interacting with Lighter, do not "pop the champagne halfway"; points cannot be considered profits until they are converted into actual LIT tokens. According to the latest announcement released by Lighter on its official Discord, "We have entered the final stage of the second season of the points activity, and we are currently conducting data analysis to remove witch addresses, self-transactions, and points obtained through wash trading. All points that are reduced (including those that have already been removed) will be redistributed to the community."
Lighter's latest announcement on official Discord
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