Today, I roughly estimated that many friends will start saying, "Look, the US stock market has reached a new high again, but $BTC has instead dropped to $90,000. The US stock market and Bitcoin have no correlation." I can understand the frustration of my friends, but in reality, although the S&P 500 did indeed reach a new high during the trading session, it also ended the day down, almost erasing the gains from yesterday. The Nasdaq also experienced a pullback.

Cryptocurrencies are inherently influenced by liquidity and users, and they cannot compare in scale to the leading US stocks. Increased volatility is unavoidable; although they tend to drop earlier and more significantly during downturns, they also rise more during uptrends. On Monday, they significantly outperformed the rise in US stocks, not to mention that this recent increase was due to positive news rather than actual changes in liquidity.

Moreover, today's decline is partly related to a series of new measures from Trump. It feels like Trump is a bit anxious for votes; today, he imposed restrictions on defense contractors and institutional home purchases. Additionally, Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA doesn't seem to be cooperating very well, so the current focus of the game is still on monetary policy. For example, today's job vacancy data was not very friendly, so we are waiting to see the non-farm payrolls.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate is now alarmingly high. Such a high turnover rate indicates that investor sentiment is not very stable. From the perspective of the chip structure, it is indeed the short-term investors who are reacting more. There are significant signs of turnover from short-term profit-taking chips that were previously on the sidelines. Currently, the focus is on whether the US stock market has stopped declining and whether $BTC can stabilize above $90,000.

What I am more concerned about is that if BTC falls below $90,000, it will likely hover around $88,000, which probably means it has re-entered a "garbage time."

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