A provocative macro thesis connected geopolitical force, electoral incentives, and monetary expansion to digital asset performance amid global instability. Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes published an essay on Jan. 5, 2026, examining how a hypothetical U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil could reshape elections, liquidity, and bitcoin’s trajectory.
In the essay, Hayes stated:
The question is, does the American colonization of Venezuela make bitcoin/ crypto number go up or down?
He framed the scenario through an explicitly electoral lens, arguing that U.S. policy choices are overwhelmingly driven by re-election incentives rather than ideology, legality, or morality. Hayes detailed that U.S. President Donald Trump faces pressure from the November midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race to maximize nominal GDP growth without triggering politically damaging inflation.
He described gasoline prices as the most decisive economic signal for the median voter, explaining that limited public transportation makes fuel costs unavoidable for American households. Hayes asserted that access to Venezuelan oil would theoretically allow policymakers to suppress energy inflation while continuing aggressive credit creation. He further explained that markets act as an immediate feedback mechanism, with equity prices, Treasury yields, and crude benchmarks shaping real-time policy responses, allowing investors to react alongside policymakers rather than predict geopolitical outcomes in advance.
Read more: Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Next Surge Is Locked in With Fed Liquidity Flood Rising
Later, Hayes argued that bitcoin structurally benefits from sustained money printing, explaining:
As the amount of dollars expands, the price of bitcoin and certain cryptos will skyrocket.
He characterized bitcoin as the purest monetary abstraction, noting that proof-of-work mining renders energy price shifts neutral to its long-term valuation, except when rising oil prices force politicians to restrain credit creation.
Hayes outlined the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the MOVE Index as key indicators of when bond market volatility compels policy reversals. The Bitmex co-founder described the macro environment as one of unavoidable deficit spending and central bank accommodation, arguing that expanding fiat credit historically coincides with rising bitcoin prices, while tactical risk management depends on oil prices and bond market stress.
- How does Arthur Hayes link U.S. geopolitical actions in Venezuela to bitcoin’s price outlook?
Hayes argues that U.S. access to Venezuelan oil could suppress energy inflation, enabling continued monetary expansion that historically supports higher bitcoin prices. - Why are U.S. elections central to Hayes’s macro thesis for digital assets?
He believes re-election incentives drive policymakers to prioritize nominal GDP growth through credit creation, a backdrop that favors bitcoin and select crypto assets. - What macro indicators does Hayes say investors should watch for crypto risk management?
Hayes emphasizes oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as key signals of when inflation pressure or bond market stress could force policy shifts. - Why does Hayes view bitcoin as well positioned during sustained money printing?
He characterizes bitcoin as a pure monetary abstraction that has historically appreciated as fiat liquidity expands, independent of long-term energy price trends.
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