Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + news perspective, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
Multi-cycle Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (Long-term Trend - Weakening High-level Consolidation) The price is currently pressed below MA20 (around 89,500), and several short-term moving averages have started to turn downwards, showing signs of a bearish arrangement. This indicates that the medium to long-term trend has shifted from an uptrend to a high-level consolidation, with signs of weakening. Strong resistance is at MA20 and the previous 94k area, while key support is at the old platform around 86,000-87,000. Indicators like MACD and RSI are both sluggish, with a clear lack of momentum at the daily level.
4-Hour Chart (Medium-term Trend - Consolidation Downtrend) This cycle shows a clearer picture, with the price oscillating downwards after peaking at 94,789 on January 5. A descending channel has formed. The price is currently struggling near the lower boundary of the channel, with MA20 crossing below MA60, indicating a typical bearish arrangement. MACD has continued to weaken after forming a death cross below the zero line, and although the green bars (bearish momentum) have shortened, they are far from strengthening. Key resistance is at 91,500-92,000 (channel upper boundary and previous small platform), with support at 89,000 (recent low) and 86,000.
1-Hour Chart (Short-term Trend - Weak Rebound Under Pressure) There was a quick surge late last night, pulling the price from around 90,000 directly to over 91,700, but it was clearly a "one-night stand" market, lacking follow-through and quickly falling back. The price is now hovering in the small range of 90,500-90,800. The 1-hour moving average system (MA5, MA10, MA20) has converged and started to diverge downwards, with MACD forming another death cross below the zero line and RSI in the weak area below 50. This indicates that the short-term rebound momentum has been exhausted, and bears have regained control.
15-Minute Chart (Ultra-short-term - Seeking Direction) This is a typical "chicken rib" market, with decreasing volatility and shrinking trading volume. The price is compressed in a narrow range between 90,300 and 90,800. Such a trend often signals a potential change in trend, and combined with the weakness in larger cycles, the probability of a downward breakout is higher.
News and On-chain Data: "Ice and Fire"
The news front is quite interesting, presenting a state of "mixed bullish and bearish, but with a stronger chill":
Bearish Pressures:
Market Cooling: Overall trading volume for spot and derivatives on exchanges dropped significantly in December, with on-chain derivatives shrinking by 30%, indicating a retreat in market participation enthusiasm.
Capital Outflow: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows recently, with outflows reaching $1.128 billion since January 6, representing real selling pressure.
Miner Pressure: The current price (around 90,500) has fallen below the miners' "growth cost line" (around 95,000-96,000). While this won't lead to a complete network collapse, it will suppress miners' willingness to sell and limit new hash power investment, posing a medium to long-term concern.
Low Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is only at 25, indicating "extreme fear" and weak market confidence.
Potential Bullish Factors and Support:
Whale Accumulation: The number of addresses holding over 100 BTC has reached a historical high, indicating that "smart money" is quietly accumulating during the consolidation period, which is an important bottom support signal.
Institutional Layout: Top venture capital firms like a16z are raising large amounts of funds, heavily investing in AI and crypto; Nasdaq and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have teamed up to launch a cryptocurrency index, paving the way for future institutional entry.
Regulatory Progress: News such as Ripple obtaining a license from the UK's FCA is a long-term positive for the compliance process.
Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Ideas
By combining technical and news analysis, the conclusion becomes clearer: The market is in a "high-level consolidation digestion period after the end of a medium to long-term uptrend," with the short-term focus gradually shifting downwards. Whale accumulation acts like a "ballast," preventing panic selling, but the exit of active funds (ETF outflows, declining trading volume) and miners' cost pressures leave the price lacking the fuel for an upward breakout.
Therefore, our forecast is: In the short term (next 1-3 days), the market is biased towards a downward consolidation, testing the core support area of 86,000-87,000. In the medium term (1-2 weeks), whether it can stabilize depends on the outcome of the bullish and bearish battle at that position.
Trading Ideas (for reference only, strict risk control):
Main Idea (High Short): When the price rebounds to the 91,000-91,500 area, consider lightly positioning short orders, with a stop loss above 92,200. The first target is 89,000, and the second target is 87,000.
Secondary Idea (Low Long Observation): If the price directly drops to the 86,000-87,000 area, do not rush to catch the bottom. Observe whether there is a clear stop-loss candlestick pattern (such as a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing), and if a bottom divergence appears in the MACD on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart, then consider a small position for a rebound, with a stop loss below 85,500. The rebound target is initially set at 89,000.
Key Reminder: At the current position around 90,500, the space above and below is unclear, so avoid chasing highs and lows. Be patient and wait for the price to reach key levels before taking action.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, check out my Qinglan Crypto Class at qinglan.org. Finally, Qinglan Sister leaves you with a trading quote: "The market builds a bottom in fear, rises in hesitation, and collapses in frenzy. The current 'extreme fear' hides opportunities, but what you need is discipline, not courage." Let's maintain patience and respond calmly together.
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