Written by: Blockchain Knight

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin continued to follow the conventional trend under macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating with interest rates, the dollar, and risk appetite.

However, this week, the market's focus shifted from "What will the central bank do?" to "Can the central bank make decisions without being forced?" The core trigger was the escalation of the conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

Powell stated that he faced threats of a subpoena and criminal prosecution from the Department of Justice, related to testifying before Congress about the Federal Reserve building renovation project. The White House and Trump denied any wrongdoing, but the market has begun to reassess the risks.

In the first round of market reactions, gold surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, a historical high, the dollar weakened, U.S. stock futures fell, and Bitcoin initially rose and then fell with the "credibility hedge" sentiment.

This linkage highlights that the dispute is not mere political noise but a substantive trading logic: the market has for the first time listed "Federal Reserve independence" as a core risk factor.

Powell emphasized that the judicial threats are a consequence of the Federal Reserve's insistence on making decisions based on public interest, refusing to blindly follow the president's wishes. This confrontation is essentially a test of whether U.S. monetary policy is based on "evidence or intimidation," and the independence of the central bank is key to stabilizing long-term inflation expectations and avoiding the politicization of monetary pricing.

Bitcoin's situation is quite awkward, possessing dual attributes as both a risk asset and a credibility hedge tool. Its short-term trend is more deeply influenced by the positioning of financialized instruments (derivatives, compliant products), but this recent linkage with gold indicates that investors have included it in the "policy credibility hedge" asset portfolio.

The conflict between Trump and Powell will impact Bitcoin through two opposing channels:

First is the liquidity channel; if the market expects political pressure to force an early rate cut, a decline in short-term yields and a weaker dollar will benefit Bitcoin.

Second is the credibility channel; if the conflict is interpreted as a signal of the Federal Reserve yielding to politics, it will trigger a credibility shock, raising the long-term dollar asset premium. Bitcoin may initially fall with the risk asset sell-off, but later see narrative-driven demand due to concerns over the credibility of the traditional monetary system.

Attention should be paid to two important time points: the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, where Powell's response to political pressure and policy guidance will reshape market pricing; and May 2026, when Powell's term ends, as the market has begun to anticipate "succession risks."

Additionally, the amplifying effect of a spot Bitcoin ETF cannot be ignored; it can convert institutional sentiment into price movements and trigger mechanical buying and selling during increased volatility, amplifying market fluctuations.

The current core issue is not whether the conflict will continue, but whether investors view it as a farce or a structural change in the governance of U.S. monetary power.

In the short term, Bitcoin may still be dominated by interest rates and liquidity, with speculation surrounding the January FOMC meeting and the rate cut path; if it exhibits structural characteristics, it will fluctuate between risk-off sell-offs and "alternative gold" demand.

The macro context may now be clear: Bitcoin is no longer just reacting to the Federal Reserve's decisions but is beginning to respond to whether the Federal Reserve possesses the ability to make independent decisions.

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