Knowing is the beginning of action, and action is the completion of knowing.

From a spatial perspective, knowing and acting are two inseparable tracks; from a temporal perspective, knowing is the beginning of action, and action is the completion of knowing. The unity of knowing and acting signifies both the beginning and the end of a matter.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Continuing from the last article, Bitcoin has continued to decline. The resistance around 90,000 mentioned previously has caused the market to be blocked at around 90,500, resulting in a drop of about 15,000 USD over five consecutive days. This coincidentally aligns with the mid to long-term trial position I have been emphasizing in previous articles (with 74,000 as the boundary, entering around 76,000-75,000). If you traded according to the article, you can hold and wait for observation, but you also need to adjust your position yourself. I cannot detail the specific operational methods here, as individual situations vary. The overall thinking in the serialized articles has not deviated significantly, including trend judgments and viewpoints. Internally, we have also followed the trends, such as the short position around 97,000 earlier and the short position near 90,000, both of which participated in the trend (not displayed here, as some apps cannot show it). Different position planning leads to different strategies; although the article updates slowly, I will discuss both the big direction and the small-level thinking. Both bullish and bearish viewpoints are expressed, sometimes simply and sometimes in detail, hoping to help friends who follow Gege.

As Bitcoin's market has reached this point, today's article will discuss the bear bottom. Previous articles have made predictions on price points, and now I will discuss them in conjunction with cycles. First, let’s briefly talk about the current price. The 75,000 level has a consensus in the market for bottom fishing, and it is also near the cost of micro-strategies. This was the low point in April 2025, and after that dip, the market entered the latter half of a bull market, driven by continuous buying from institutions. Therefore, it is a position worth trying. As mentioned above, you can hold and observe. The prices set by ETF institutional giants are certainly lower than the current ones, so the current price cannot be considered the bear bottom; it is merely a key support area in this phase.

Let’s estimate the retracement from historical cycles of bull to bear. The first time was around 2011, with a retracement of 94%. This time can be ignored as it was very early, with poor liquidity and limited participants. The second time was around 2013, with a retracement of 87%. The third time was around 2017, with a retracement of 84%. The fourth time was around 2021, with a retracement of 77%. The fifth time is expected in 2025, with a retracement of? Based on the historical cycle, the retracement is becoming shallower because the market consensus is stronger, and with the involvement of institutions, factors such as building costs and miner costs after each halving come into play. Currently, if we speculate based on the historical cycle's shallower retracement, if this time the retracement is 70%, the price would be around 38,000; if the retracement is 60%, the price would be around 50,500. Gege's view is more optimistic than this data, still adhering to the previous estimates of around 63,000 and 52,000.

In the short term, looking at the chart, I have used this chart for a long time. The purple area below is the mid to long-term trial position area, while the upper area focuses on the resistance around 83,000-85,000. If it cannot break through, it will be a signal to close long positions and enter the reversal area. The next period will be to observe the resistance above and the support situation in the purple area below, whether it will effectively break down or just a false break, to determine specific operations. That’s all for today; the above analysis is purely speculative and for reference only!

Suggestions are for reference only; ensure proper risk control when entering the market, and manage profit and stop-loss spaces yourself. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we will say goodbye until next time. I wish everyone success and smooth sailing in the cryptocurrency world! More real-time suggestions will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time suggestions, find Gege.

Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.

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