Beneath the Surface: Why Bitcoin’s Recovery Still Lacks Structural Confirmation

CN
3 hours ago

Bitcoin‘s daily chart on Monday morning reflects a clear macro downtrend from the $95,000 region into a capitulation wick near $59,930, followed by a reactive bounce and sideways compression between $65,000 and $70,000. Lower highs continue to print even after the rebound, preserving the broader bearish structure.

Major support sits between $59,900 and $60,000, with intermediate support layered at $64,000 to $65,000. Resistance is firmly established between $69,500 and $70,000, and any structural shift requires acceptance above $70,000 with expanding participation. Until then, this remains stabilization within a downtrend — not a confirmed reversal.

Beneath the Surface: Why Bitcoin’s Recovery Still Lacks Structural Confirmation

BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 23, 2026.

The 4-hour chart captures a textbook liquidity sweep. A recent high at $68,668 was followed by a sharp decline to $64,258, marked by a strong impulsive red candle before buyers stepped in aggressively around the mid-$64,000 region. Bitcoin is now forming a short-term recovery channel, defending support between $64,200 and $64,500 while attempting to reclaim the $66,000 pivot zone. Immediate resistance stands at $68,500 to $69,000. Momentum on this timeframe reflects recovery, but price remains capped below prior breakdown levels, keeping broader pressure intact unless $69,000 is decisively reclaimed.

Beneath the Surface: Why Bitcoin’s Recovery Still Lacks Structural Confirmation

BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 23, 2026.

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, price action shows a sharp flush to $64,258 followed by steady higher lows and a stair-step advance toward $66,000 to $66,500. Intraday support is layered between $65,200 and $65,500, while resistance clusters at $66,800 to $67,000. A strong hourly close above $67,000 would signal short-term expansion potential toward $68,500. However, this intraday strength remains counter-trend relative to the daily structure. In other words, the 1-hour chart is flexing, but the higher timeframes still hold the megaphone.

Beneath the Surface: Why Bitcoin’s Recovery Still Lacks Structural Confirmation

BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 23, 2026.

Oscillators present a mixed but informative picture. The relative strength index ( RSI) reads 35, reflecting neutral momentum leaning toward the lower end of the range. The Stochastic oscillator sits at 38, also neutral. The commodity channel index (CCI) prints −107, remaining neutral despite its negative territory.

The average directional index (ADX) registers 58, indicating strong trend presence, though not directional bias by itself. The Awesome oscillator shows −8,083, while momentum reads −2,430, signaling downside pressure. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD) level stands at −3,689. In short, momentum remains conflicted — stabilization, yes; dominance, not yet.

Moving averages (MAs) lean decisively heavy. The exponential moving average (10) (EMA) sits at $67,849, and the simple moving average (10) (SMA) at $67,825 — both positioned above the current price. The exponential moving average (20) (EMA) is $70,228, and the simple moving average (20) (SMA) is $68,253. Further overhead pressure comes from the exponential moving average (30) (EMA) at $72,962 and the simple moving average (30) (SMA) at $73,223.

Longer-term signals remain stacked bearishly, with the exponential moving average (50) (EMA) at $77,378, simple moving average (50) (SMA) at $80,800, exponential moving average (100) (EMA) at $84,802, simple moving average (100) (SMA) at $85,005, exponential moving average (200) (EMA) at $92,059, and simple moving average (200) (SMA) at $98,673 — all above spot price. Bitcoin is trading beneath every major moving average, which is about as subtle as a brick through a window.

Bull Verdict:

If bitcoin reclaims $67,000 on strong hourly closes and builds momentum through $68,500 to $69,000, the short-term recovery channel on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts gains credibility. A decisive breakout above $70,000 with expanding volume would invalidate the sequence of lower highs on the daily chart and shift the structure from neutral-to- bearish toward constructive. With the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD) signaling underlying momentum support and price stabilizing above $64,000, a sustained push through resistance would likely trigger a multi-day expansion phase.

Bear Verdict:

Failure to clear $67,000 to $69,000 resistance, followed by a breakdown below $64,000, would confirm that the broader daily downtrend remains dominant. With bitcoin trading beneath every major exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA), and momentum still negative per the momentum indicator reading of −2,430, a loss of $64,000 exposes the $59,900 to $60,000 major support zone. A break there would shift the market from consolidation back into continuation mode within the prevailing macro downtrend.

  • What is bitcoin’s price on Feb. 23, 2026?
    Bitcoin is trading at $66,304 within a $64,435 to $68,001 24-hour range.
  • Is Bitcoin in a bullish or bearish trend right now?
    The daily chart structure remains bearish with lower highs unless $70,000 is reclaimed with strength.
  • What are the key support and resistance levels for bitcoin?
    Major support sits at $59,900 to $60,000, and resistance stands between $69,500 and $70,000.
  • What do bitcoin’s technical indicators signal currently?
    Oscillators are mostly neutral while price trades below all major exponential moving averages (EMA) and simple moving averages (SMA), reflecting ongoing structural pressure.

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