1. Previous Logic Review

According to our previous expectations, if the key low point ahead is effectively broken, the trend is likely to continue in a new downward direction. There are mainly two reasons:

The key low point below has already been broken

The local structure has already formed a slightly bearish pattern

Therefore, our thinking at that time was:
down for a period → a rebound occurs → continue to look down

2. Latest Structural Changes

However, yesterday the market showed an important variable — the price strongly broke through the key resistance area, accompanied by a volume increase, and a relative high point ahead was also broken.

We switch to the 1-hour level:

The key resistance level focused on yesterday was the previous stage low point

This level had been broken previously, and there was a pullback to confirm resistance and continued to decline

When touching that resistance level for the first time yesterday, there was indeed a slight pullback

But then the price broke through again

This has actually formed a multiple bottom structure at the bottom

3. Current Position Operating Suggestions

Although there has been a volume breakout, I personally do not recommend chasing long positions above 68,000.

The reason is simple:

If the market is in a healthy rising structure

It is likely to pull back first → test support again → then continue to rise

So chasing long positions at this current level is not cost-effective.

In the opposite direction:

If betting on shorts

You may consider trying with a small position and low leverage

But it must be exploratory in nature

4. New Judgments on the Fluctuation Cycle

Previously, my expectation was that this phase might continue to fluctuate for over a month.

Reference basis:

The previous adjustment structure fluctuated for 54 days

And this phase has been from breaking below 60,000 until now

It has only fluctuated for 20 days

Not even a month

Therefore, it was initially thought that the fluctuation time was still insufficient.

However, due to the emergence of the bearish structure, it was once judged that the fluctuation might end early and directly turn weak.

5. Another Possible Scenario by the Main Force

However, after yesterday's rally, the market has added a new possibility:

The trend may enter a wide fluctuation liquidation zone

A typical path may be:

First break the low (completed, liquidate longs)

Then break the high (liquidate shorts)

Finally turn to decline

This is a very standard method of the main force's wash-out:

Break low → Break high → Then decline

This possibility cannot be ruled out at the moment.

6. Key Pressure Area in the Long Cycle

From the perspective of the long cycle, a very key position is:

74,000–75,000

This is a typical:

Previous phase high point

Support-resistance conversion point

Historical structure is:

Breaking up and retracing to 74,000

Subsequently forming a rising trend

Then breaking down again

Therefore, there is a natural occurrence here:

Breaking below support → Retracing becomes resistance → Verification again

7. Two Main Paths in the Future

✅ Path One (Relatively Healthier)

The trend may:

First pull back

Stabilize around 66,000

Raise the low points

Then oscillate upwards

Ultimately testing 74,000–75,000

If this structure appears:

✅ After stabilizing post pullback, consider trying a low-position short

⚠️ Path Two (Low Probability but Possible)

If the market:

Directly rises from the current position

Without a decent pullback

Directly rushes towards 74,000–75,000

The suggestion is:

❌ Try to abandon this short position
❌ Do not chase highs

The reason is only one:

There is no reasonable stop-loss position

The worst thing in trading is not missing out but entering with bad odds.

8. Current Clear Operation Principles

To summarize very clearly for everyone:

1Currently above 68,000

Do not recommend chasing longs

There is a risk of pullback

2If the pullback is in place and raises the low points

✅ Consider trying low-leverage short positions

3If it rises directly without giving a pullback

Abandon the short

Wait to consider medium to long-term short positions at high points

 Follow me, join the community,let's progress together.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。