The story of the Middle East never belongs solely to the Middle East.

History has repeatedly demonstrated that although the financial world appears complex on the surface, it actually operates around the most basic resources. Sometimes it's a shipping lane, sometimes it's a piece of land, and sometimes, it's oil.

Oil has always been an important asset that influences global financial system pricing. In 1973, Arab countries suddenly imposed an oil embargo on the West. Within a few months, oil prices quadrupled. Inflation in the United States soared, and the stock market plummeted.

Half a century later, this logic has not changed. Only this time, the impact of oil extends beyond the stock market to include the younger cryptocurrency assets.

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War, Oil, and Bitcoin

To understand today's situation, we must first return to 2022.

When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the world was primarily concerned about a disruption in Russian energy supplies. That panic pushed Brent crude oil to $127 within two weeks, with some varieties even hitting $130, reaching a ten-year high, a surge of 30-40%.

But what about digital gold?

Within hours of Russia's actions, Bitcoin fell from $39,000 to around $34,300, a decline of over 12%. Although Bitcoin experienced a brief rebound in early March—perhaps because the narrative surrounding "digital gold" saw a recovery back to $44,000—it couldn't hold on for long.

High oil prices triggered inflation, which forced the Federal Reserve to initiate the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in decades. Subsequently, Bitcoin fell into a long winter, dropping below $20,000 by June 2022.

If we calculate from the peak in November 2021 to mid-2022, Bitcoin's decline exceeded 60%; even when looking only at the six months following the outbreak of war, its price shrank by over 50%.

Perhaps it was around that time that some began to realize that Bitcoin is not gold. Instead, it resembles a leverage play on the Nasdaq, where the higher oil prices rise, the higher inflation becomes, which makes the Federal Reserve more anxious, leading to more aggressive rate hikes, resulting in less money available to borrow, and fewer people willing to bet on high-risk assets.

Bitcoin is at the forefront of the sell-off list.

The critical difference between today's situation and the 2022 Russian oil crisis lies in the nature of the disruption.

In fact, at that time, Russian oil did not truly exit the global oil market. Instead, it was mitigated through Russia's "secret fleet." With secret fleets rerouting and transporting, Russian oil continued to move past sanctions.

What we are seeing now, from the shut-in of 3 million barrels per day from Iraq's Rumaila oilfield to physical assaults on oil storage in Tehran, indicates a severe bottleneck in infrastructure. Related reading: “Finally, the Gulf oil crisis has arrived.”

Last weekend, conflicts in the Middle East continued to escalate. Both sides began targeting oil storage facilities and desalination plants. Subsequently, Iraq confirmed that 3 million barrels of oil production capacity had been halted. This number exceeds the scale of the concerns regarding Russian shortfall in 2022, which, as previously mentioned, actually did not manifest.

When oil storage facilities are hit, they are hit. When pipelines explode, they explode. This is physical damage; no secret fleet can bypass a burning refinery. For this reason, Qatar has warned that oil prices will rise to $150.

This morning, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil broke through $100 per barrel. The Dow futures expanded their early losses to 2%, the Nasdaq futures fell 1.65%, and the S&P 500 futures dropped 1.7%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $66,000 this morning, nearly erasing last week's rebound and returning to a downward trend.

When oil prices rise, Bitcoin is generally in decline.

If you see this, most people should be able to understand the reason behind it. Simply put: rising oil prices trigger inflation; inflation prompts action from the Federal Reserve; when the Fed acts, liquidity changes; when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin follows suit.

This week, various macro data will be released, and each link in this chain will be tested sequentially.

Key Events to Watch This Week

Most retail traders focus too much on the CPI data release day while completely neglecting the relationship sequence between the data.

First, the opening of U.S. stocks and oil futures is the most critical data of the week. The news of Iraq's production halt has been fermenting for an entire weekend, and the oil opening is the market's first real pricing of this event.

This morning, upon opening, WTI crude futures surged by 22%, breaking above the $110 mark; Brent crude futures also jumped by 20%, reaching $111.04 per barrel.

The significant jump in oil prices indicates that the tone for inflation this week has essentially been set at this time.

Next, we need to pay attention to Wednesday's release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This data will also validate or overturn market direction following tonight's oil price opening.

On Friday, three data points—GDP, PCE, and JOLTS—will be released together. GDP will tell us whether the economy is genuinely slowing down; PCE is the inflation metric most important to the Federal Reserve; if it also increases, the possibility of interest rate cuts can essentially be ruled out; JOLTS will verify whether the labor market has loosened. These three data points will further reveal whether the economy is genuinely slowing down or if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.

If each data point this week indicates "inflation is persistent, the economy is still strong," then it will be a tough week for Bitcoin.

Of course, not all voices point towards pessimism. Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, believes that the current oversold state of the cryptocurrency market presents a layout opportunity. His core logic is based on global liquidity: "Since 2012, the correlation with Bitcoin has been 90%, and with the Nasdaq index has been 97%. It is growing at approximately 10% yearly and has not slowed down."

He lists several supporting factors worth paying attention to:

First, the liquidity environment remains loose: GMI's financial conditions lead global liquidity by 6 months and currently point towards looseness; overall liquidity in the U.S. is accelerating its recovery from a low point, historically having about a 3-month leading effect on the cryptocurrency market.

Second, structural benefits are accumulating: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has not yet ended, China is accelerating its balance sheet expansion, the issuance of stablecoins grew by 50% last year and is still accelerating, and the CLARITY Act is expected to clear legal obstacles for banks and asset management institutions to enter.

Third, the technical indicators are nearing a bottom: both weekly and daily DeMark indicators point to a completion of bottom confirmation within about two weeks; once signals overlap, the potential for a trend reversal will be activated.

However, Raoul Pal himself pointed out the greatest uncertainty: how long high oil prices will persist.

The price of oil will be the focus in the coming two weeks. And the price of oil will depend on how long this conflict continues.

A Ceasefire is Not So Simple

Currently, most military analysts believe that Iran's ability to retaliate has greatly diminished. Missile inventories are depleted, launch vehicles are continuously targeted, the navy has essentially lost combat effectiveness, and drones are now scarce. More critically, the strikes by the U.S. and Israel are targeting not just Iran's existing arsenal but its military industry itself, including factories, technological reserves, and relevant scientists.

According to Israeli assessments, if the strikes continue for about two more weeks, Iran's ability to manufacture missiles and drones will be completely destroyed, rendering it a "toothless tiger."

This has a direct impact on concerns regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Many worry that this war will completely block the world's most important energy passage, but this concern is logically unfounded. No matter which regime is in power, Iran's oil still needs to be sold through this strait. Blocking the strait would effectively cut off its foreign exchange source. Short-term disruptions during the war are possible, but labeling it as the "end of the era of cheap energy" is misrepresenting a temporary shock as a permanent structural change.

However, once military issues are resolved, the real challenges are just beginning.

The two regimes in Iran, the Pahlavi dynasty and the Khomeini regime, appear to be completely opposing systems. However, at a core point, they actually share the same logic: both only modernized halfway and then filled the remaining half with traditional authority. The Pahlavi dynasty established a modern economy, but power superseded the division of powers, fundamentally dreaming of restoring the glory of the ancient Persian Empire; Khomeini preserved the shell of elections and parliaments but replaced the content with theocracy. One is wrapped in royal authority, the other in religious authority, taking the same path. This means that even if external forces topple the current regime and restore the Pahlavi crown prince, history will not simply "rewind."

Therefore, a more realistic expectation for Iran's future might resemble a state similar to Venezuela:

The regime has not completely collapsed, but it is persistently losing strength, its military capacity is weakening, its economy increasingly depends on external forces, and internal conflicts grow harder to reconcile until one day a qualitative change occurs from within. The clerical class is not a monolith; historical infighting has never truly ceased. When the Revolutionary Guards are sufficiently weakened, those "internal moderates" that have always existed but never dared to speak out might surface.

This process will be slow. It's not a matter of weeks; it could take years.

So what does this mean for oil prices and Bitcoin?

We believe it means that military actions can have an endpoint, but the uncertainty surrounding Iran's political reconstruction will continue to disrupt the global energy market for quite some time. The volatility of oil prices may last longer than most expect. And with each fluctuation in oil prices, the chain from inflation to liquidity and then to Bitcoin will tighten once again.

To consider how to trade in the short term, we are looking at tonight's oil price opening, Wednesday's CPI, and Friday's PCE data. If all of these data points indicate persistent inflation and no hope for rate cuts, the script from 2022 serves as a recent reference, and Bitcoin will likely face pressure first.

If you extend the timeframe slightly, another possibility also exists: if military actions conclude within weeks, the market will recalibrate its pricing of "Iran risk," and the geopolitical premium on oil prices will gradually dissipate. At that point, the liquidity expansion logic described by Raoul Pal and the technical bottom signals will provide clearer decision-making benchmarks.

As for the longer term, it will allow the Middle East's political situation to unfold gradually.

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