Original Title: "BTC Achieves Eight Consecutive Days of Gains, Reaching 76,000, What is the Logic Behind Outperforming Gold in the Midst of War?"
Original Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
Bitcoin reached 76,000 USD during trading on March 16, setting a six-week high after eight consecutive daily gains, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 4%. This price point is close to a significant resistance area since late January. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28, Bitcoin has increased by nearly 20%, while gold has fallen by about 3% during the same period, and the S&P 500 index has dropped by about 2%, with Bitcoin's relative performance outperforming almost all mainstream assets.
Regarding liquidation data, according to Coinglass, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours was 610 million USD, with short positions accounting for 485 million USD. Data from Alternative.me shows that the market has shifted from "extreme fear" to "fear," with today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index rising to 28 (yesterday's index was 23, indicating "extreme fear").
On March 16, the three major indexes all closed up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 387.94 points, closing at 46,946 points, an increase of 0.83%; the S&P 500 rose by 1.01% to 6,699 points; the Nasdaq rose by 1.22% to close at 22,374 points. The improvement in market sentiment is mainly due to the easing of geopolitical risks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated to CNBC that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first successful transit of tankers since the conflict began.
WTI crude oil futures traded in a range from 92.93 to 94.17 USD per barrel, while Brent crude opened at 105.26 USD per barrel. Previously, there were concerns that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt about 20% of global oil transport, causing oil prices to spike to a three-year high. As expectations for a de-escalation of the situation have increased, the rise in oil prices has been moderated.
However, due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, spot gold has fallen to about 5,010 USD per ounce, retreating from recent highs. Silver has followed the adjustment of the precious metals sector. The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is noteworthy, as both have been bought as safe-haven assets since the war began, but Bitcoin's performance has started to outperform gold.
Three Logics Driving Bitcoin Upward
First, the easing of geopolitical risks has released risk appetite. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has been the biggest suppressor in the market over the past three weeks. High oil prices mean rising inflation expectations, which are very unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive assets. With signals of the reopening of the Strait passage emerging, the market began to repricing.
Second, Bitcoin is playing the role of a non-dollar safe-haven asset. In this round of U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin did not fall in sync with the stock market but instead strengthened against the trend. Fortune magazine reported that since the war began, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, stocks, and all other mainstream safe assets. This contrasts with Bitcoin's performance during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 when it fell along with the market, indicating a change in market perception of Bitcoin's attributes.
Third, the options structure is creating a magnetic effect around 75,000 USD. Crypto analyst Murphy noted that near the expiry of options on March 20, there is about 180 million USD of Long Gamma open interest around 74,000 USD, and the hedging behavior of market makers will suppress volatility, causing prices to tend to oscillate in this range, objectively forming resistance.
However, after March 20, the structure for the next major expiration date, March 27, showed a significant change. The 75,000 USD strike has accumulated a Call open interest of 9,685 BTC, while the Put has only 2,711 BTC, with Calls holding an absolute advantage. More importantly, between February 28 and March 14, the net premium for Calls at this strike price surged from 5.8 million USD to 19.8 million USD when Bitcoin was still in the 66,000 to 68,000 USD range, indicating that capital was positioning for a bullish outlook at lower levels.
From the perspective of Gamma risk exposure, there is about -2.56 billion USD of Short Gamma structure near 75,000 USD. In a Short Gamma environment, the closer the price gets to this strike price, the faster the Delta change of market makers, who are forced to continuously replenish hedges in the direction of the price, buying on the upswing, creating a classic "Gamma magnetic effect."
Above, the 80,000 USD mark corresponds to a Long Gamma exposure of 420 million USD. At that time, the hedging direction of market makers will shift, and volatility will be suppressed, forming significant resistance; below, near 65,000 to 67,000 USD, there is 390 million USD Long Gamma providing a buffer, but this area’s OI is significantly weaker than that of 75,000 and 80,000 USD, representing a buffer zone rather than strong support.
FOMC Becomes the Biggest Uncertainty Variable
The Federal Reserve's meeting this week is in a predicament, possibly presenting the most direct stress test for Bitcoin in recent times. CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects a greater than 99% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged (3.50%-3.75%).
Historically, Bitcoin has dropped after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings, averaging a decline of 14%. Only once has there been a brief increase following a meeting. In January 2026, after the Fed maintained interest rates as expected, Bitcoin fell from 90,400 USD and ultimately rebounded only after breaking below 60,000 USD.
However, the policy environment this time is more complex than ever. Brent crude has surpassed 100 USD per barrel, and inflationary pressures have resurfaced; February's nonfarm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, putting pressure on the labor market outlook. The conflicting signals from two major targets sharply narrow the space for monetary policy.
For Federal Reserve Chair Powell, this will be the second to last meeting before his term ends in May. The next interest rate adjustment may not happen until Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee by Trump, officially takes over the Federal Reserve. Moreover, there is also a unique political pressure, as a federal judge last week rejected the Justice Department's subpoena to the Fed, but prosecutors have announced an appeal, and this legal process may disrupt the confirmation process for Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh. Powell's term is set to end in May, but according to court documents, he has stated that "he cannot resign while a criminal investigation is pending."
For Bitcoin, if Powell can express confidence in inflation trends or hint at a rate cut window during the press conference, this would be the most bullish scenario; however, if he reiterates a hawkish stance or makes ambiguous remarks under political pressure, the risk of a short-term pullback will also significantly increase.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
