In the past month, the Nasdaq has remained fluctuating between 24,000 and 25,000 points without significant volatility, indicating that the current market, despite developments in the war, has not reached a stage of panic. After all, everyone knows that while the war has caused a surge in oil prices, which in turn has triggered recurring inflation, the war is not expected to last long, and currently investors do not anticipate any interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before Powell's departure.
So although the market appears lively, the greater risk at the moment is not the ongoing war; of course, if the war escalates, the risk will also escalate. If it reaches nuclear warfare, that would be the highest level of risk. Currently, the biggest risk may still stem from pessimistic expectations triggered by high interest rates. For example, while credit hasn't shown significant issues, institutions are acting like startled birds.
Early Thursday morning will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There should be no changes in this meeting, and reporters will mainly ask about the impact of the war on inflation. However, due to changes in tariffs, I think Powell may lean towards a neutral-dovish stance this time.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, today’s turnover rate has started to decrease. While prices have slightly increased, the trading volume has not expanded, indicating that investors' desire to sell is not very strong. The turnover on Monday was already sufficiently high, and the chip structure is similar to before; all data appears very healthy.
In the short term, the only thing that can significantly change $BTC is unexpected events. If things proceed step by step, Bitcoin will likely remain in a state of fluctuation. If oil prices are a little lower, the risk market will be better, but if oil prices can’t hold, the risk market will face some headaches.
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