Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )

After experiencing eight consecutive daily gains, BTC has once again turned around, continuously declining from $76,000 and currently stands at $69,200. The mainstream indicators referenced in the industry for bottom-fishing, including Ahr999 (also known as the "9 God Index"), weekly RSI, STH-SOPR (short-term holder buying average price), LTH (long-term holder buying average price), and MVRV Z-Score (realized market cap ratio), are all in a state of "sometimes effective, sometimes ineffective": many indicators, although at low levels, show a continuous market decline; some indicators at high levels, however, occasionally trigger market surges.

In light of this, we will present four representative bottom-fishing indicators in the industry in this article, combined with data and real-life "implicit indicators" to construct a new "bottom-fishing indicator," attempting to explore the downward space of BTC. The following content is for learning and exchange purposes only, not constituting investment advice. All investment risks are self-borne; please DYOR.

Four Classic Indicators for BTC Bottom-Fishing Timing: The Best Timing Has Not Arrived, BTC May Fall Below 60K

From the new high of $126,000 in October last year to the current fluctuation around $70,000, the price of BTC has experienced a roller coaster ride in just a few months. In such a volatile cryptocurrency market environment, many industry indicators have lost their reference value, including but not limited to the dynamically flexible mining machine shutdown price, the industry fear and greed index, Google search popularity index, and the rainbow chart established during BTC’s early penetration stage.

The reason is simple: the inflow of BTC spot ETF funds, the increasing number of U.S. stock DAT treasury companies, and the convenience provided by U.S. regulatory agencies have led to a structural change in the evaluation system of BTC. Institutional holdings, derivative arbitrage, exchange internal settlements, and U.S. macro monetary policy as well as global geopolitical issues have become more significant factors affecting BTC price. In other words, past on-chain indicators and profit-loss assessments can only serve as references and cannot yield intuitive conclusions anymore.

Here, we present data and result analysis using still relatively representative industry indicators, which may better illustrate the reality of the ineffectiveness of old indicators.

Indicator One: MVRV Z-Score, Anchored Value System Collective Shift

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

As of March 18, the MRVR indicator is temporarily reported at 1.31; previously, in February, crypto researcher anıl pointed out that "when the MVRV Z-Score falls below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its lowest price point. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin reached was +0.26, which means the classic 'green zone' has not yet been tested." (See Figure 2 above) On March 14, Bitcoin News noted that the MVRV Z Score had dropped to around 0.38, a level that previously indicated undervaluation. Other key support levels include the realized price around $54,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000. Bloomberg noted that the potential bottom range is between $45,000 and $55,000, but a sustained recovery requires new demand support. (See Figure 3 above)

Reason for Ineffectiveness: The massive holdings from ETF custodians and DAT companies systematically elevated the realized value (RV), significantly increasing the denominator (standard deviation) of the Z-Score, making it extremely difficult to reproduce historical "extreme negative values" in the current structure.

Indicator Two: Ahr999 Index (9 God Index), Bottom-Fishing Zone Below 0.45 Has Continued for Nearly 50 Days

Since February 1, the Ahr999 index has remained below 0.45 for nearly 50 days, whereas historically, the number of days the index stayed at 0.45 is only 612 days, accounting for approximately 11% of the total. On March 19, the Ahr999 accumulation indicator data was 0.37, indicating it remains within the bottom-fishing range, but it is challenging to provide more long-term guiding information.

Reason for Ineffectiveness: The market has been in an oversold condition since the massive crash on October 11 last year. Combined with Trump's volatile policies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, and international geopolitical turmoil, BTC's safe-haven attribute has significantly diminished. Thus, after falling below the previous cost line of $76,000 for the largest BTC DAT listed company Strategy, it is still waiting for more liquidity restoration, and this indicator has gradually become a comfort index for "long-term value investors."

Indicator Three: SOPR, STH-SOPR Continues Below 1, LTH-SOPR Continues Between 0.75-1

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is usually used to measure the average profit-loss ratio of on-chain moved chips, where LTH-SOPR focuses on long-term holders whose holdings exceed 155 days. When LTH-SOPR drops below 1, it typically indicates that older chips are beginning to stop-loss and sell, historically corresponding to deep bear market bottoms.

In February, Bitfinex released an analysis report indicating that on-chain indicators showed the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) had dropped to the 0.92 – 0.94 range, reflecting that most currencies are transferring in a loss state, and structural pressure remains.

On March 14, Glassnode's weekly report also highlighted that the 7-day moving average of STH-SOPR was at 0.985, remaining below 1 for the longest time since October 2025—this is a typical characteristic of a bear market system. This is a significant feature of the bear market cycle. Meanwhile, the net position change of LTH indicates that older chips are still decreasing, but the speed has significantly slowed down, shifting from aggressive distribution in Q3/Q4 2025 to a more moderate profit-taking pattern.

Ineffectiveness: A decline without old chips surrendering does not constitute a traditional cyclical bottom. The sustained STH-SOPR below 1 confirms the bear market, but when LTH-SOPR reaches its turning point is the true leading indicator of the bottom.

Indicator Four: BTC Mayer Multiple, Below 0.8 for Nearly 50 Days

As an industry indicator derived simply by comparing BTC's current price to its 200-day moving average, the BTC Mayer Multiple, similar to the Nine God Index, has remained below 0.8 for nearly 50 days. Historically, 0.8 is often a significantly undervalued price range. Therefore, although this index is based solely on a simple price average and is relatively less affected by institutionalization, it still struggles to form a sustainable bottom-fishing index.

Three Key Indicators That May Reveal Bear Market Bottom-Fishing Range: CVDD Iron Bottom, NUPL Negative Values, Stablecoin Exchange Inflows

CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed): An Analyst's Personal Iron Bottom Model

This indicator was developed by crypto analyst Willy Woo to track the cumulative holding weight of BTC in different price ranges, constructing a "historical iron bottom" curve.

It is worth mentioning that this curve has approached the BTC market price twice, in December 2018 and November 2022, but has never fallen below this curve to date.

Currently, the CVDD model indicates that the current iron bottom for BTC is about $45,000.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): BTC Overall Profit and Loss Net Value

This indicator is mainly used to measure the net value of unrealized profits and losses across the network, with the general judgment criteria as follows:

High NUPL (>50%): Greed-driven peaks; an ideal choice for profit-taking.

Low NUPL (0%): Fear or surrender; potential bottoms.

It is worth noting that the NUPL indicator most recently fell into negative values during the period from June 2022 to January 2023.

Currently, the NUPL indicator remains around 0.2.

Stablecoin Exchange Netflow: Net Inflow of Stablecoins

This indicator is mainly used to determine whether stablecoins are flowing back to exchanges, i.e., a precursor signal for market buying. Historically, sustained recovery of stablecoin net inflows often precedes a substantial rebound in BTC price by 2 to 4 weeks.

The logic behind this indicator is that without the return of stablecoins, price rebounds are merely leveraged-driven technical bounces, with very low sustainability.

Currently, USDT and USDC, which occupy about 80% of the stablecoin market, are still experiencing continuous outflows, indicating a considerable distance from the BTC bottom.

Conclusion: Buy When No One Cares, Sell When the Crowd Cheers

In conclusion, we must emphasize that the various indicators mentioned above are for reference only, and specific trading investment strategies differ due to individual and institutional risk preferences, capital sizes, and holding periods.

However, compared to bottom-fishing indicators, perhaps the escape indicators in the crypto industry are more flexible—just like how gold and silver surged to everyone's attention some time ago, once the discussion surrounding BTC spreads around you, whether it’s the lady buying groceries on the subway or Tony, the hairdresser, when they start asking you about BTC, Crypto, or cryptocurrency-related investments, perhaps selling at that moment will be the only best choice.

I hope we all can await that day, starting a "great retreat that belongs to ourselves."

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