The current situation is very clear:

Crude oil is down; $BTC is up, the S&P has rebounded by 10%, and the Nasdaq has risen for ten consecutive days;

Regarding this war, although it is not yet over, the market seems to have tacitly agreed that it cannot continue, basically concluding that the war immunity mechanism is in place, and assets have started to enter a rebound phase.

Additionally, during this time, we have experienced easing macro risks (temperatures of war expectations cooling), a return of funds (ETF / institutional re-net inflows), and short-squeeze dynamics (driven by short-term liquidations).

Therefore, I personally lean towards the idea that this is not simply a rebound, but rather the first stage of "emotional bottom → structural repair."

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