There is another phenomenon now, the market is unclear, and a large amount of short-term attention is beginning to shift towards small stocks and unusual stocks.

Recently I have looked at several high-control speculative coins, and my advice boils down to three words: do not participate.

Speculative coins, what is speculative? There is no causal chain, it has already deviated from the pricing logic that a normal market should have.

When a coin re-enters your view, it has usually undergone two things:

First phase: Low-position chips have already been concentrated (otherwise, they cannot be pushed up).

Second phase: The price has been pushed to a noticeable range (otherwise you would not see it).

The vast majority of people enter when the roles have already been set. Many people do not even know who needs this rise to happen and cannot distinguish whether this is a trend or distribution.

There is a very simple market feature to verify:

1⃣ During the rise, trading volume continues to expand, but the slope of the price is slowing down;

2⃣ There is repeated “rise → stabilize → rise again,” but to achieve the same increase, increasingly larger trading volumes are needed;

3⃣ It is easy to spike, but there is no natural connection between multiple rising phases.

If there are ①② but no ③, it indicates that it is still in the early distribution phase;

If all ①②③ appear, it is basically entering the late stage of selling, with the highest risk.

If there is only ③, without ①②, it may just be a small-cap controlled stock + emotion-driven coin, not necessarily in the process of selling, but it lacks trend attributes.

Of course, I still choose not to play, a game with asymmetric information and costs, thinking that relying on a bit of real-time reaction can turn oneself into that rare survivor escaping, is too difficult!

If you want to dance with the scythe, first you must be prepared to be cut off by the scythe.

If you do not dance with the scythe, keep your distance, you will never be harvested!

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