Good evening everyone, I am Xinya. Long time no see, this month's market has not attracted much attention. This month, Bitcoin rose by 10,000 points, and many short sellers got trapped; they may have been waiting for a pullback, but the actual trend forced liquidation of shorts and did not provide an exit opportunity.

Let's take a look at recent events. In the early hours of the 23rd, Bitcoin began to decline after reaching around 79,500. During the testing of the buying interest, there were two rebounds, and the high points of the rebounds were both blocked around 78,500. We can mark this. The two downward attempts did not refresh the low, and from the one-hour MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines are close to the zero axis, with the battle between bulls and bears occurring around 77,500. Therefore, the next segment of market contention will revolve around 77,500.

The current price is operating below the lower band of the one-hour Bollinger Bands, and the one-hour EMA120 and EMA144 moving averages are around 76,800, while the four-hour EMA120 and 144 are far at around 74,800. The latter has already become a concentrated area for the trapped short positions, and the market will not easily give them an opportunity to exit. The two most likely scenarios for the market currently are both occurring over the weekend; if the market consolidates, it is highly probable that it will oscillate within the range of 76,500 to 78,800.

The second possible scenario for the market is an upward test. Bitcoin will test the daily EMA144 around 78,800. It may face resistance between 78,500 and 78,800, leading to a temporary pullback, but the next rebound could break through and reach around 81,200. If the market behaves unpredictably, it may just surge up to give everyone a surprise.

As for Ethereum, the one-hour EMA120, 144, and four-hour EMA30 are all around 2,335. The four-hour EMA120 and 144 are around 2,280. Many people might judge the levels collectively and regard the area of 2,335 as resistance. They might reference Bitcoin's resistance at 78,500 and determine that Ethereum's 2,335 is a pressure point, both hitting hard. In this regard, our evaluation is that this is retail novice thinking.

Xinya is more inclined to see 2,280 as a new support zone. After Bitcoin and Ethereum test the aforementioned levels, they can further test upward; proportionally, if Ethereum returns to 2,418, Bitcoin would refresh to the mentioned 81,200 range, wouldn’t it? This is Xinya's inclination and may also become the most reasonable market trend.

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