The US-Iran ceasefire has been extended, and BTC spot ETF has seen a net inflow for six consecutive days.

Written by: Maher, Foresight News

On April 23, Bitcoin was quoted around $78,000, having recently broken through $79,000, reaching a new high since February this year. ETH, on the other hand, is still oscillating around $2,400, with some altcoins seeing significant gains.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation data for the entire network was $462 million, with $353 million from short positions. According to the latest data from CMC, the market fear and greed index has risen to 60, indicating neutral sentiment.

Global risk assets continue their rebound momentum. The US stock market set a new historical high yesterday: the S&P 500 index closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite Index reported 24,657.57 points, up 1.64%, setting a new record high; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 49,490.03 points, an increase of 340.65 points or 0.69%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) stabilized near 98.61, fluctuating slightly compared to the previous day.

Trump announces extension of ceasefire agreement on Wednesday

On Wednesday, Trump announced an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement for 3 to 5 days, along with strong corporate earnings reports for the first quarter, allowing US stocks to quickly recover from the previous two days of consecutive declines.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed at new highs, with chip stocks rising for sixteen consecutive days; oil prices soared simultaneously, showing a divergence with positive market sentiment.

Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire at the request of a Pakistani mediator, stating that US-Iran negotiations could resume as early as Friday, but Iran later denied any news of negotiations taking place on Friday.

The Iranian President stated, "We welcome dialogue and agreements," but criticized Trump for his "hypocrisy"; the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, mentioned that a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved if the blockade is not lifted.

Oil prices surged on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive increase this week, with WTI crude oil futures rebounding to levels seen before the breakdown of negotiations, and Brent crude nearing $102.

The three major US stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 index hitting a record high and the Nasdaq breaking historical peaks, driven by technology stocks. The technology sector of the S&P 500 rose by about 2%, the best performer among 11 sectors.

Additionally, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the market probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year has risen to 30%.

As expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East increase, the safe-haven attributes of the dollar are significantly weakened, combined with the market's return to betting on Fed rate cuts this year, global funds are accelerating their withdrawal from dollar assets. Data shows the dollar index has retreated about 2.3% from its high at the end of March, marking its worst monthly performance since August of last year.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that the current weakness of the dollar is fundamentally driven by the "diminishing risk premium + shifting policy expectations." JPMorgan has restarted its dollar short strategy, turning bullish on the Australian dollar and other risk currencies; Bank of New York Mellon also noted that emerging market currencies are comprehensively rebounding, reflecting a significant recovery in global risk appetite.

BTC spot ETF achieves consecutive six-day net inflow

In terms of BTC spot ETF data, there has been a continuous net inflow for six days. From April 14 to 21, the total net inflow of the ETF each day has been positive.

The single-day net inflow on April 17 reached as high as $663.91 million, the highest in recent times; April 14 and April 20 recorded net inflows of $411.5 million and $238.37 million respectively; April 15 contributed $186 million.

In terms of net outflows, there were only four days recorded and the outflow amounts did not exceed $400 million on any single day.

As for the Ethereum spot ETF, it has achieved a rare nine-day continuous net inflow since April 9 of this year.

On April 17, it recorded a single-day net inflow of $127 million, setting a new high for this month. In terms of net outflows this month, only four days were recorded.

Regarding stablecoin data, according to DefiLlama, the total has risen to $32.06 billion, with a net inflow of $635 million in the past seven days.

Future Trends

Glassnode releases data indicating that Bitcoin has regained the $78,000 level, with spot demand and ETF capital inflow returning. Short positions with negative funding rates are accumulating, presenting the potential for a short squeeze. However, excessive realized profits and low volatility are releasing cautious signals, and the upward space around $80,000 faces resistance.

BIT tweeted that new sources of Bitcoin demand are gradually emerging. Continuous accumulation of Strategy provides relatively stable buying support for the market, which is beginning to show clearer signs of capital inflow. Specifically, the Coinbase Premium has continued to rebound, with daily net inflows for the Bitcoin spot ETF reaching approximately $664 million, the highest since mid-January.

These signals collectively point in one direction: the demand structure is undergoing repair. Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and US spot demand are forming a synergy, solidifying price support at low points, and market participation is also rebounding, showing a clear departure from the previous adjustment phase. Combined with yesterday's analysis of stablecoin capital returning, the liquidity support is also gradually strengthening. The two clues mutually corroborate, indicating that the market may be gradually constructing a new trading range. This does not mean the market will move in a linear fashion, but if the aforementioned trend continues, the probability of prices advancing towards the upper boundary of the range is increasing.