Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Two Bombs, Different Directions, Same Result

On Tuesday, Wall Street was hit by two events simultaneously, but the final outcome was just one: sell.

The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.80 points, the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.90% to 24,663.80 points, and the Dow Jones barely moved, ultimately dropping 25.86 points to close at 49,141.93. The Russell 2000 fell by 1.2%, slowly shedding the gains accumulated from a more than 10% surge last month.

The first bomb: The Wall Street Journal revealed that OpenAI did not meet its KPIs.

Reports indicated that OpenAI repeatedly missed its monthly revenue targets in early 2026, ChatGPT failed to achieve the internally set target of 1 billion weekly active users by the end of the year, while also facing user attrition. CFO Sarah Friar privately expressed concerns to management and the board: if revenue growth does not accelerate, the company may struggle to fulfill its existing cloud computing procurement contracts. The reasons pointed to two names, Anthropic stealing market share in programming and enterprise, and Google's Gemini making a comeback at the end of the year.

OpenAI's counterattack was swift, with Altman and Friar jointly declaring the report "ridiculous," and both were completely aligned on increasing cloud computing investments. Oracle also came forward to support, stating they were witnessing the adoption of OpenAI technology accelerating.

But the market did not accept any rebuttals.

Companies deeply tied to OpenAI collectively plunged that day: Oracle dropped over 4%, Broadcom fell over 4%, AMD was down about 3%, Nvidia decreased by 1.5%, and CoreWeave plummeted over 5%. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's largest shareholders, saw a nearly 10% drop during intraday trading in Tokyo. The entire AI infrastructure investment chain was put on hold by this report.

Interestingly, the analysts' reactions were much calmer than the market's. Gabelli Funds' John Belton said the report did not present any new information; the market share loss of OpenAI relative to Anthropic and Gemini had long been common knowledge in the industry. Mizuho's Jordan Klein was even more straightforward: when the $122 billion financing round was completed at the end of March, all information should already have been disclosed to investors, "If they didn't know, they should ask OpenAI."

The issue is not how serious the report is, but rather the timing. With MAG7 earnings week approaching, and amid a backdrop of a 10%-15% increase in valuations, any signal questioning the returns on AI investments would be magnified tenfold.

The second bomb was larger, in the opposite direction, but nonetheless put a circle on the sell orders: The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1.

Brent crude oil surged past $112/barrel, WTI broke $100, marking the highest point since the outbreak of war and the first three-digit oil price in nearly three years. The UAE is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, following Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with a capacity close to 5 million barrels per day; its exit means OPEC has lost the ability to coordinate this level of production capacity.

UAE foreign affairs adviser Anwar Gargash stated the real reason the day before the announcement: the Gulf Cooperation Council provided "the weakest political support in history" during Iran's missile attacks on the UAE. The U.S., on the other hand, is different; Secretary of State Rubio had just met with the UAE Foreign Minister on April 26, and the Israeli Iron Dome defense system had already been deployed on UAE territory by the Israeli Defense Forces, marking the first time that the Iron Dome was deployed on foreign soil for defensive operations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent also publicly supported providing emergency dollar swap facilities to Abu Dhabi a few days prior. The UAE's exit from OPEC is not only a signal of geopolitical alignment but also a trump card after pressure has reached its limits.

The surge in oil prices is theoretically good for energy stocks, as BP closed with better-than-expected Q1 results, and General Motors rose 4% against the trend (Q1 better than expected + raised full-year guidance + Supreme Court ruling invalidating part of the tariffs bringing in about $500 million in extra profits). However, only a few stocks rose, while companies killed by high oil prices continued to line up.

Spotify plunged over 12% that day, becoming one of the most battered names. Q1 earnings per share of $3.46 exceeded expectations of $3.03, with monthly active users at a record 760 million, but revenue was slightly below expectations, and Q2 operating profit guidance of €630 million also fell short of Wall Street expectations, leading to new doubts about the profitability of music streaming in the acceleration of AI investments. UPS, although exceeding Q1 expectations, maintained its full-year guidance unchanged, with stock prices down about 4%: package volume is declining, revenue is declining, while management’s response is "continuing to push forward with strategic adjustments." Coca-Cola’s earnings per share of $0.86 exceeded expectations of $0.81, with the stock up about 3.9%, a rare bright spot in the Dow.

Oil Prices: OPEC Crumbles on One Corner, $100 is Not the Ceiling

The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC is not simply a matter of one member less in the organization.

This is the first public fracture in oil production policy between the two most important Gulf oil-producing countries since 1967. The quota system led by Saudi Arabia within OPEC+ is essentially a mechanism for binding interests where countries accept production cuts in exchange for revenue stability brought by price coordination. The UAE's withdrawal indicates that, for them, this deal no longer makes sense.

The short-term market reaction is Brent above $112, WTI above $100. However, the longer-term logic is more intriguing: once the UAE releases the quota restrictions, ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) can gradually increase capacity from the current actual 3 million barrels per day to a potential close to 5 million barrels per day. This represents a potential increase of about 2 million barrels per day in supply. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted one day, the pressure on the supply side could quickly reverse.

Fortune cited the perspective of economists from Deutsche Bank, worth pondering: this conflict is strengthening economic ties between Iran and China, seen as a "key catalyst eroding the petrodollar system and the beginning of the oil renminbi era." The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to about 57%, a 25-year low. Iran has charged tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in stablecoins, and China has purchased Iranian crude oil with renminbi, while India may follow suit.

Gold fell about 2.2% to $4,591/ounce, and silver dropped 3.5% to $72.96. This trend continues to validate an unusual logic: the higher the oil price, the higher the inflation expectation, the stronger the dollar, the more pressure on gold. Today the Federal Reserve meets, and Powell may hold the hammer for the last time; if hawkish, gold prices may linger below $4,600 for a while.

Cryptocurrency: $79,488 to $75,600 in less than 48 hours

CoinGecko data shows that on April 28, Bitcoin closed down about 2% at around $75,695, with a low of $75,674 (according to Bitstamp), nearly $4,000 down from the 12-week high of $79,488 just less than 48 hours earlier. Ethereum fell about 3%, XRP and Solana each fell about 3%, with the total global cryptocurrency market cap around $2.68 trillion, the fear and greed index around 45, neutral but cautious.

The trigger for this pullback was very clear: once the news of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC was announced, Brent crude soared from $107 to $112, and the market's immediate reaction to inflation expectations was to "sell all risk assets,"Bitcoin was no exception. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that short-term holders had already profited significantly last week in the $78,000-79,000 range, and institutional buying (mainly from ETF and Strategy continuous inflows) could not fully absorb this selling pressure, creating a clear technical resistance at the $80,000 mark.

Bitcoin is now in a logistically entangled position.

On one hand, the UAE's exit from OPEC is a potential positive in the medium to long term: the UAE's capacity release may lead to lower oil prices, reduced inflation pressures, and a breather for risk assets. On the other hand, realizing this logic requires the Strait of Hormuz to reopen first, and substantial progress in negotiations is necessary beforehand. Until then, the market will sell first and think later whenever they see oil prices break through round numbers.

There is also a deeper signal that has not been widely discussed but is worth noting. Fortune disclosed this week that the dollar's percentage of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 57%, and the narrative of petrodollar renminbi is shifting from academic discussion to actual transactions. If the erosion of the petrodollar system is a trend on a decade scale, then Bitcoin’s "digital gold" logic needs to be repriced. But this is not a trading logic for today or this week; it is a narrative that needs to be slowly digested by the market in the range of $75,000 to $80,000.

This afternoon (April 29), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, likely Powell's last during his tenure. After the market closes, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will collectively release Q1 earnings reports.

Today is the most important afternoon since this round of rebound began.

Today's Summary: AI Narrative Has Torn a Seam, Oil Order Has Broken a Leg

On April 28, two things happened simultaneously, pointing to one answer: the air at the top of the market is starting to thin.

U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.80, Nasdaq dropped 0.90% to 24,663.80, and the Dow was nearly flat. The WSJ revealed that OpenAI missed both revenue and user targets, Oracle dropped over 4%, Broadcom fell over 4%, CoreWeave dropped over 5%, and SoftBank plummeted nearly 10% in a single day. Meanwhile, GM (+4%) and Coca-Cola (+3.9%) went against the trend, showing increasing divergence during earnings season.

Oil Prices/Gold: UAE announced its exit from OPEC, Brent crude oil surged past $112, and WTI crossed $100, both hitting new highs since the war outbreak. Gold fell 2.2% to $4,591, under pressure from a strong dollar and inflation expectations.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rapidly retreated from a high of $79,488 to $75,695, with a daily drop of about 2%. The uncertainty triggered by the UAE's exit from OPEC is the immediate catalyst, while the $80,000 level remains a strong resistance.

The market is now only concerned with one question: can MAG4 withstand market expectations tonight?

Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have all risen over 10% this month, as the market bets on continued AI Capex explosion. But the lessons from ServiceNow and IBM last week still linger—exceeding expectations could also become a reason to short. If any guidance falls below expectations, or if AI investments are deemed too aggressive, then the valuations established during the past two weeks could be halved within two hours after the market closes. If all exceed expectations, it wouldn't be a dream for the Nasdaq to return to 25,000.

At least for today, one thing has become clear: OpenAI is no longer the undisputed household name of AI narratives. What Anthropic and Gemini are eroding isn’t just market share, it’s the entire industry’s narrative foundation of "all in one company is enough."