The market sentiment tonight is not calm. The Governor of the Czech National Bank openly stated that Bitcoin is the future and should be included in reserve assets, which is undoubtedly a significant positive for sovereign institutions and, in the long run, strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value. However, at the same time, large whales are selling off aggressively. On the 27th, the net inflow on CEX reached a 30-day high, with large short positions being placed around $77,700. Coupled with possible hawkish signals from Fed Chair Powell, short-term pressures cannot be ignored. Positive and negative factors are intertwined, and the market is currently at a critical point of contention.

Current Price and Time

The current time is April 29th, 21:10, with the BTC price at 77,106 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 1.41%. Market sentiment remains fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index at only 26.

Multi-Cycle Status Overview

On the daily chart, MA5 and MA10 are converging around 77,400, with the MACD histogram in negative values. DIF is below DEA, reflecting weak medium-term momentum, while RSI is at 57.6, in a neutral to weak zone. On the 4-hour chart, MA5 and MA10 form short-term support in the 77,000-76,700 range, with the MACD histogram turning positive and DPI crossing DEA, although the magnitude is small. RSI is at 45.28, still in a weak zone. On the 1-hour chart, MA5 and MA10 are around 77,400-77,200, with a positive MACD histogram that is starting to shorten. RSI is at 65.61, close to the edge of the overbought zone. On the 15-minute chart, the MACD histogram is negative, and RSI is at 45.53, indicating short-term bearish momentum. Overall, daily and 4-hour signals are weak, 1-hour is bullish but with decreasing momentum, and the 15-minute chart shows retracement pressure, leading to a divergence in multi-cycle signals.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the Qinglan TPV system, the current 1-hour EMA55 is 77,059.56, and the current price is 77,106, slightly above EMA55. In the last 8 1-hour candles, the closing price was greater than EMA55 5 times, and it crossed EMA55 once. The absolute deviation of the price from EMA55 is 0.06%, which is considered stabilizing, increasing the likelihood of fluctuations. The system indicates that the current state does not meet the stability threshold, but the stabilizing state suggests that the direction is unclear.

Long Conditions: Although the price is stabilized above EMA55, the condition for closing 2 consecutive 1-hour candles above EMA55 has not yet been fully confirmed, and the latest candle is still in testing. As for support stabilization, recent lows were around 76,600, but the rebound strength has been limited without forming a clear bottom type. Regarding the exhaustion of downward momentum, the MACD histogram has shortened for 2 consecutive cycles, but RSI has not yet rebounded from below 30, making conditions incomplete. Short Conditions: There has been no pressure from the price below EMA55, as the current price is above EMA55, but the stabilizing state suggests that bearish pressure may emerge at any time. Pressure from resistance: Recent highs are around 77,800, but no clear top type has been formed. As for weak rebounds, the MACD histogram has begun to shorten, and RSI has dropped from 65, presenting some signals, but conditions are incomplete. In summary, the system is in a slightly bullish stabilizing state but with declining momentum, making aggressive operations inadvisable.

On-Chain/Funding Situation

On-chain data shows a Fear and Greed Index of 26, indicating an extreme fear market sentiment which usually suggests that a short-term bottom may not be far off but could also continue the weakness. BTC's market share is at 58.11%, still at a high level, with funds not noticeably flowing into altcoins. In recent news, signals of large whale selling are clear, with net inflows on CEX reaching a 30-day high, while large short positions are betting on a rebound peak, all of which are putting pressure on short-term prices. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations and rising oil prices are exacerbating inflation concerns, maintaining macro pressure. On the positive side, the Governor of the Czech National Bank supports Bitcoin as a reserve asset and predicts that the market ETF is about to be launched, but these are more long-term narratives that are difficult to offset short-term selling pressure.

Key Attack and Defense Levels

The key resistance level above is in the 77,800-78,000 range, which is the recent rebound high and a shorting area for whales. If broken, the next resistance level is at 79,000-80,000. The key support level below is in the 76,600-77,000 range, where it resonates with the 1-hour EMA55 and the 4-hour MA5. If broken, the next support level is at 75,000-75,500, which is the previous low and whale selling target. The current price of 77,106 is situated in a middle ground between support and resistance, with an unclear direction.

Trading Ideas

Based on the current stabilizing oscillation state, Qinglan suggests a wait-and-see approach for clear signals. If the price pulls back to the 76,600-77,000 range and shows a bottom type or long lower shadow, consider light positions for a long entry in the 76,600-77,000 range with a stop loss set below 76,000, aiming for a target of 77,800-78,000. If the price rebounds to the 77,800-78,000 range and shows a top type or long upper shadow, consider light positions for a short entry in the 77,800-78,000 range with a stop loss set above 78,500, aiming for a target of 76,600-77,000. If the price drops below 76,600 directly, the bearish trend is established and could pursue short positions, targeting 75,000-75,500. If the price breaks above 78,000 directly, the bullish trend continues and could pursue long positions, targeting 79,000-80,000. Note that current liquidity is low, and volatility may amplify; position controls must be strict.

Risk Warning

The current market is engaged in fierce long-short contention, with both whale selling and macro pressure simultaneously. The consolidating oscillation state can easily lead to false breakouts; please strictly control positions to avoid chasing highs and cutting lows.

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