The worst possible 5 Year Bitcoin Entry was down just 13%.

Return comparisons can look very different when the start date is a cycle top.

Our analyst @yeak__ looked at every possible 5 year holding period for BTC, ETH, and SOL using daily prices since May 2016. ETH and SOL returns include staking yield where available.

None of the ETH or SOL windows were negative while BTC had only 11.

The worst BTC window came from buying on December 16, 2017 near the prior cycle top, and selling five years later near the 2022 cycle low. The return was roughly -13%.

BTC’s median 5-year return was over 8x. ETH’s was nearly 13x. NVDA’s roughly 14x return over the last five years is often used as a contrast to crypto, but it is similar to the third quartile of historical 5-year BTC and ETH returns.

Shorter holding periods are much more sensitive to entry price.

The bearish argument depends on treating the most unfavorable window as the base case.

The data suggests the opposite. For extended time horizons, major crypto assets have historically delivered exceptional 5-year returns across the vast majority of entry points.

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