Author: Rand Group (@cryptorand)

Translation: Shen Chao TechFlow

Shen Chao Guide: Crypto KOL Rand Group has broken down the AI super cycle into four phases, from chips to infrastructure to robots to platform software, marking the core targets and risk-reward ratios at each phase. His judgment is: the first phase (semiconductors) is completed, the second phase (power/thermal/network) is being priced, and the real asymmetrical opportunities are in the third phase—robots, space, defense, nuclear energy.

The AI super cycle will last 15 years. We are now in the third year.

Most investors are still buying stocks from the first phase, but the truly smart money is already rotating into the third phase.

I have broken the entire cycle into four phases, marking the most important targets in each phase.

The AI super cycle is the biggest investment theme of this generation. It's bigger than mobile internet, bigger than cloud computing. A structural transformation lasting 15 years will reshape every industry in the global economy. Super large-scale cloud providers have just committed $725 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, nearly double last year's spending. Each of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta individually exceeds $100 billion.

This is not speculation.

🔴 Phase One: Completed (2023-2025)

The foundation layer has been completed. AMD rose 78% in 2025, NVDA rose 39%, and Intel just delivered an explosive Q1, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 points for the first time. Chips continue to drive every phase, but the historic opportunity for entry has passed, and the risk-reward ratio has been compressed.

Targets: NVDA, AMD, ARM, INTC, AVGO, MU, GLW

Sector: Semiconductors, storage, photonics/optics

Status: Foundation layer completed, still growing, but already priced in.

🟡 Phase Two: Peak Construction (2025-2027)

The phase where most investors are just waking up. CEG acquires Calpine, becoming the largest private power producer in the U.S. with 55 GW. GEV has risen over 200% in a year. VRT collaborates with NVIDIA's Rubin architecture to design cooling solutions. GLW has risen 74% this year due to fiber optic demand. Nuclear energy SMR is the biggest dark horse—OKLO, SMR, BWXT are directly laying out power supply for data centers.

There is still upside potential, but the most obvious names have already been acted upon.

Targets: CEG, GEV, VRT, VST, TLN, ANET, GLW, MOD, EQIX, OKLO, SMR, BWXT, NNE

Sector: Power/grid, cooling, networking, nuclear energy SMR peak construction

Note: Nuclear energy SMR is a hidden big opportunity.

🟡 Phase Three: Positioning Window (2026-2028)

The phase where AI steps out of data centers and into the physical world. Most people will be late.

Tesla is transforming the Fremont factory into an Optimus robot production line, with $25 billion in capital expenditure, aiming for mass production in the second half of 2026. Rocket Lab sets a record with $602 million in revenue, with backlogged orders of $1.85 billion. LUNR has risen 47% this year, holding $943 million in contracts. KTOS's Valkyrie drone has been selected by the Marine Corps.

The positioning window is now open.

Targets: TSLA, RKLB, LUNR, KTOS, AVAV, PATH, ISRG, MP, FCX, ALB, ASTS

Sector: Robotics/autonomous driving, space/defense/drones, rare earths

Judgment: The asymmetrical risk-reward ratio is right here.

🟢 Phase Four: The Endgame (2028+)

The endgame. Microsoft is spending $190 billion, Alphabet $190 billion, Amazon $200 billion, Meta $145 billion. Google Cloud has backlog orders exceeding $460 billion. They are building the infrastructure for AI software hegemony and AGI. Quantum computing is still early, but IONQ and D-Wave are already laying the foundation.

The platform controlling the software layer will win the entire super cycle.

Targets: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, IONQ

Sector: AI software hegemony, AGI infrastructure, decade-level arguments

Strategy: Buy on dips.

Core Conclusions

• Phase Two is confirmed (super large-scale cloud providers $725 billion capital expenditure)
• Phase Three is where smart money is positioning—robots, space, defense, nuclear energy
• SMR is the core trade from 2026 to 2028
• Most people will be late by 12 months to rotate into these names

A 15-year super cycle. It is not a single trade. The first phase is completed, the second phase is in pricing, and the third phase is where you should be positioned.