Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Do you remember Leopold Aschenbrenner? He is the 24-year-old "AI New Stock God" we introduced in the article "SBF's little brother, turning 225 million into 5.5 billion in a year."

Leopold Aschenbrenner worked for FTX's Future Fund in 2022 and continued with the team until the FTX collapse. In 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote a 165-page super paper titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" and established a fund of the same name, Situational Awareness LP, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer.

Situational Awareness LP focuses on investment opportunities in the AI industry chain, with the fund's publicly disclosed holdings only "merely" 225 million dollars in Q4 2024, while the amount has rapidly increased to 5.5 billion dollars in the disclosure published in February this year for Q4 2025. This explosive investment return performance has significantly boosted the reputation of Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness LP, making them one of the most closely watched AI investment trends online.

Now, Situational Awareness LP has entered a critical window for disclosing its holdings (13F). Since last week, the entire internet has been on alert, waiting for the fund to present its current strategy for AI investments. However, as of this writing, the disclosure from Situational Awareness LP has not yet arrived.

The so-called 13F refers to a quarterly disclosure document required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for funds managing over 100 million dollars. The SEC requires that qualified funds must submit this document within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter, in which the fund must disclose its holdings of U.S. listed stocks, call/put options, convertible bonds, and specific ETF positions as of the end of the prior quarter.

It is now May 18th, and three days have passed since the disclosure deadline of May 15th for Q1 2026. In the past few days, many sovereign wealth funds, university endowment funds, and traditional financial institutions have disclosed their Q1 13F holdings reports, but the market still awaits the disclosure from Situational Awareness LP.

Based on various market analyses, there may be three possible scenarios affecting the disclosure progress of Situational Awareness LP's 13F.

The first possibility is that Situational Awareness LP may have only submitted the document to the SEC after 5:30 PM on May 15. Since that day happened to be a Friday, the SEC did not have time to process it, so the document would need to be published on the SEC’s website the following Monday, thereby only becoming public knowledge then.

This is currently the mainstream opinion in the market; if this is the case, we expect to see the 13F document from Situational Awareness LP later today (at the latest by tomorrow).

The second scenario is that Situational Awareness LP has applied for confidential treatment with the SEC. This is a legal mechanism provided by the SEC that allows large funds to delay the public disclosure of their ongoing positions, possibly for up to a year.

Typically, a fund applies for confidential disclosure for one primary reason — they are building a sufficiently large position that, should the market learn about it prematurely, would drive prices in a direction unfavorable to them before they complete their position. If this is indeed the case, it would mean that Leopold Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating some important asset and currently does not want the market to know, which undoubtedly warrants greater market attention.

The third scenario is nearly impossible, which is that Situational Awareness LP significantly reduced its position in the past quarter and has brought its holdings below the disclosure threshold for 13F (100 million dollars). However, considering the fund held 5.5 billion dollars last quarter, the probability of this scenario is extremely low.

In summary, we just need to be patient for another one to two days to find out the true reason behind the delay of Situational Awareness LP's disclosure.

If it is the first scenario, we will promptly provide an analysis of position changes immediately after the 13F is released; if it is the second reason, the entire internet will truly be on edge — what exactly is Leopold Aschenbrenner hoarding? That will be a moment for various investigative experts to showcase their skills.

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