On May 18, 2026, on-chain analyst Yu Jin made a striking judgment: the current market trading enthusiasm is even lower than that at the bottom of the bear market in December 2022. The data comparison is more intuitive—during the previous bear market bottom, Bitcoin hovered around $16,000, and the average daily trading volume of BTC/USDT on Binance was about $2 billion, with prices hitting rock bottom but the market was extremely active, panic selling and high-frequency turnover resulted in the build-up of a significant "deep pit"; whereas now, Bitcoin's price is about 4.5 times that of then, and it should be in a "relatively prosperous area after price recovery," yet the average daily trading volume of BTC/USDT on Binance has shrunk to about $500 million, less than a quarter of the previous bear market bottom, showing a typical "price with no market" in a higher price range. When trading activity declines below the previous bear market bottom after a significant price increase, we must ask: is this merely a short-term extreme low mood, or has there been a deeper change in the structure of market participants, trading methods, and capital flows?

The Panic of 2022: Prices Halved but Volume Expanded

Going back to the last bear market, Bitcoin fell sharply after hitting a high, with a maximum drawdown of about -75% around December 2022, with prices being pushed down to about $16,000, which the market commonly regarded as the bottom area of the previous bear market. While prices approached "halving again," trading data presented a completely different picture: at that time, the average daily trading volume of Binance BTC/USDT was about $2 billion, far higher than the current level of about $500 million. During the panic phase of continuous price breaks and leveraged liquidations, there was still ample capital willing to take on real counterparties in the market, demonstrating a typical clearing pattern of "prices falling and volumes increasing."

From the perspective of market structure, high price declines combined with high trading volume are typically seen as a panic selling phase at the end of a bear market, with selling pressure released centrally and positions quickly changing hands. After this round of panic selling in December 2022, panic capital was forced to surrender positions amid increased volume, while more patient and risk-tolerant funds concentrated on absorbing at low levels. The result is that although prices were pressed to an extreme low near $16,000, on-chain and market transactions were unusually active, completing the concentration of positions and cost reduction required for the subsequent rebound and trend switch in the new cycle. This is one of the prerequisites for the current price recovery to take place.

4.5 Times the Price with a Quarter of the Volume: Tepidity Surpasses the Bear Bottom

Looking back to December 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out around $16,000, the average daily trading volume of Binance BTC/USDT was still about $2 billion. The price had reached an extreme low, but positions changed hands rapidly amid panic and gamesmanship. In contrast, by May 18, 2026, Bitcoin's price had risen to about 4.5 times that level, but the same trading pair's average daily trading volume had sunk to about $500 million, only a quarter of the previous bear market bottom. Research reports indicate that several major altcoins' current prices remain significantly above the bottom area of December 2022, but both in-market trading and on-chain activity are shrinking more than back then, clearly indicating a market structure of "some holding coins, few trading."

This "high price, low volume" divergence suggests that the current situation resembles a high-priced shell rather than an area validated by adequate trading; it is a typical "price with no market." The last round's bear market bottom was characterized by extreme price drops and increased trading volume, while this round reflects a situation where trading volume is compressed to historical lows while prices remain far above the previous bottom, resulting in a level of indifference that exceeds the extreme pessimism of the previous round. Based on this, on-chain analyst Yu Jin concludes that the current trading enthusiasm in the crypto market is lower than that at the previous bear market bottom, and the core support for this judgment is precisely that: a 4.5 times Bitcoin price corresponds to just a quarter of the in-market transactions and an even thinner real participation.

Where Has the Volume Gone: From Short-Term Speculation to Passive Holding

If we see the bear bottom of December 2022 as an extreme sample of "panic turnover," with Bitcoin around $16,000 and Binance BTC/USDT's average daily trading volume of about $2 billion, today the price has risen to about 4.5 times that, but the average daily trading volume for the same trading pair has shrunk to about $500 million, only a quarter of the previous bear market bottom. According to conventional understanding of volume in traditional financial markets, such a sudden drop in trading volume first implies a significant contraction in the number of active traders and trading frequency, with short-term capital no longer frequently engaging in market speculation, and existing positions primarily reflecting a state of "low-frequency turnover" passive holding. The research report does not provide more detailed positioning or on-chain distribution data, so we can only make a structural inference based on this trading flow rather than supplementing new numbers: when prices are still high, but turnover is extremely low, a more logical explanation is a decline in trading willingness rather than the complete lock-up of all positions.

From the perspective of capital behavior, on one hand, institutions and large holders in this round of the cycle prefer to extend holding periods and reduce turnover rates; on the other hand, some capital may choose to shift to off-market matching or other assets, causing the visible liquidity concentrated in major exchanges' spot markets to continue to thin. The result is that daily turnover in exchanges gets continually compressed, and the market is easily maintained in a narrow range without active speculation, appearing to be "calm." However, in an environment where liquidity is already thin, whether it is new incremental buying or sudden macro unfavorable news, orders of the same scale will have a greater impact on the market, causing prices to either rise quickly in the face of sudden buying or fall rapidly under concentrated selling pressure. This combination of low trading volume and high amplification effect is quietly increasing the risk coefficient for the next round of volatility.

Projecting a $31,000 Low by Historical Decline: Just a Scenario Projection

In the last cycle, Bitcoin fell from its highs to about $16,000 in December 2022, with the maximum drawdown calculated at roughly -75%. If we treat "from the peak to -75%" as a reusable template, we can make a simple analogy for this cycle: defining this round's peak as 100, a -75% drawdown would mean only 25 remains, so the report inversely projects that this "25" corresponds to an absolute price of around $31,000. In other words, $16,000 corresponds to the last round's "25," while $31,000 corresponds to this round's "25," simply scaled by the relative multiples of the two cycles' peaks, leading some analysts (like Yu Jin and Compounder) to hypothesize that "if there is a further -75% style drawdown, this round's bottom might be around $31,000."

It is important to emphasize that there is only one historical premise and one mathematical rule here: in the previous cycle, there was an extreme drawdown of about -75%, but it does not guarantee that the market is bound to replicate the same degree of decline in this round. The report also mentions that as of now, the current cycle's drawdown from the peak is about -38%, still showing a clear distance from -75%, suggesting that the so-called "bottom of $31,000" is just a scenario projection extending the previous extreme conditions to this round, rather than a price fact that has occurred or will inevitably happen. Simplistically viewing the historical maximum decline as a "must-pass question" overlooks possible changes in cycle structure, participant structure, and funding environment: prices may completely form a bottom around -38%, or they might approach or even exceed this historical decline at a future stage, making $31,000 more suitable as a resistance level for risk assessment rather than a definitive anchor point for trading guidance.

The Road After the Ice Point of Volume: Long-Term Sideways or New Narrative Ignition

At the current juncture, Bitcoin's price is still about 4.5 times the $16,000 bottom of December 2022, with a maximum drawdown of about -38%, far from re-enacting the previous round's extreme drop of about -75%, but the average daily trading volume of Binance BTC/USDT is only about $500 million, just a quarter of the $2 billion from that year. On-chain analyst Yu Jin also points out that current trading enthusiasm is lower than that at the previous bear market bottom, resembling a state of "cold indifference" rather than a panic crash. Looking solely at the price-volume structure, the market may be approaching or even entering a "no trading volume bottom" area, but such bottoms are often only confirmed over longer time scales. The possible paths ahead could be broadly threefold: first, long-term sideways in a low-volume range, slowly completing the redistribution of positions with low turnover, maintaining prices significantly above the previous bottom but with persistently low sentiment; second, under external negative news or liquidity contraction, prices continue to drop, converging towards the previous round's deep drawdown and reinforcing the memory of a "true bear market"; third, a sufficiently attractive new narrative emerges to attract fresh capital, restarting an upward trend with supportive volume. The research report mentions that some opinions believe that the current situation is not panic, but a lack of innovative narratives leading to hot money struggling to persist, and some capital may have already diverted to RWA, AI, and other tracks. However, these judgments about the causes of "coldness" and the direction of capital are all marked as viewpoints waiting for verification, rather than conclusions drawn from existing on-chain or exchange data. Therefore, a more reasonable approach is to treat them as scenario hypotheses and dynamically cross-validate them with subsequent changes in volume and participation, ultimately determining whether a "no trading volume bottom" can emerge depends on whether substantial changes occur in volume and participant structure aside from price.

Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。