1. Market Overview

Today is May 21, 2026, Thursday. The current price of Bitcoin is $77,900, with a slight increase of 0.5%-1.5% over the past 24 hours, ending a five-day decline. Ethereum is around $2,130-$2,150, also rebounding but with weak momentum.

Core Characteristics: The market shows a "stronger Asian session, retreat during the U.S. session" structural trend, with the Coinbase premium index dropping to a multi-month low, indicating that U.S. buying remains weak.

2. News Background

Geopolitical risks are cooling down temporarily. The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to "terminate the war authorization against Iran" with a vote of 50:47, marking the seventh attempt since the conflict escalated in late February. Oil prices dropped nearly 5%, and U.S. Treasury yields fell, leading to an overall warming of risk appetite.

However, cryptocurrencies did not follow the rise in U.S. stocks. The easing of geopolitical tensions benefits risk sentiment, but the sharp drop in oil prices has weakened some inflation hedge demands, causing a short-term disconnection between the crypto market and traditional risk assets.

Funds remain cautious. The market is focused on the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and the FOMC April meeting minutes, both of which are regarded by institutions as the most critical macro volatility triggers of the quarter.

3. Policy Dynamics

Trump signed an executive order on cryptocurrencies. It requires the Federal Reserve and regulatory agencies to assess the inclusion of cryptocurrency companies into the traditional financial system more comprehensively, improving banking service accessibility issues. However, this order is merely a directive to start rule-making, and actual implementation still requires agencies to advance the specifics.

The window for the CLARITY Act is narrowing. On May 21, Congress entered a Memorial Day recess; if the review cannot be completed this month, it may be necessary to wait until 2030 to restart the legislative process. If passed, the act will clarify the "non-security" status of assets like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

4. On-Chain and Technical Analysis

BTC Technical Structure: The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart have contracted to the extreme, indicating that a turning point is near. Resistance is at $78,000-$78,500, while support is at $76,600-$77,000; breaking below could test the previous low of $76,100.

ETH Technical Structure: The rebound is hindered at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (around $2,145), with weak momentum in the MACD's red histogram, indicating limited rebound strength. Resistance is at $2,145-$2,155, and support is at $2,095-$2,110.

On-Chain Signals: The Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating insufficient spot demand in the U.S., with marginal buying not increasing in line with the rebound. During the rebound, trading volume has shrunk, with price increases driven more by short covering than active buying.

Chu Yuechen: May 21 Bitcoin ETH Contract Strategy Recommendations and Trading References

The overall stage is one of low-level fluctuations, waiting for catalysts, with a long-term bearish dominance and short-term rebounds being constrained.

Today we need to observe whether the resistance at $78,000-$78,500 is effective; of course, those who are currently in cash can consider placing a short position at this level, with a stop loss above $78,600, targeting around $76,000.

Regarding ETH, I mentioned yesterday to place short positions in the $2,130-$2,150 range; it has mostly been small oscillations from yesterday to today, with no trading volume. ETH can be boldly traded, with a stop loss above $2,200, targeting again around $2,050-$2,000.

For intraday short-term contract trading, it is crucial to monitor the market closely; in a narrow fluctuation market, multiple trades can be made without being greedy for points. If there are profits of several hundred points, it's advisable to exit, continuing to trade with volatility.

I will provide real-time price alerts here; friends who want to exchange trading ideas can message me directly.

As we travel through the years, everyone has their own story. A calm mind reveals beauty, and a joyful mood brings brightness. When tired, take a break; dance with the gentle breeze. When troubled, find stillness and gaze with flowers and plants. When in haste, slow down a bit and smile at yourself. Life does not have true perfection; only imperfection is the most real beauty; life is not always smooth sailing, only by forging ahead can the path be clear.

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