On-chain data: The net outflow duration of ETF institutional funds has reached a historic peak!
ETF fund flows: Net outflows for four consecutive days, institutions are still retreating! On June 10, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $214 million, continuing multiple trading days of net outflows, as shown in the red area of the figure below!!
Sub-item data:
BlackRock IBIT: Net outflow of $148 million (main outflow) Grayscale GBTC: Net outflow of $87.91 million Grayscale Mini BTC: Net inflow of $17.52 million Fidelity FBTC: Net inflow of $4.04 million
Although the price rebounded from 60,694 to 63,200, ETF funds continue to see net outflows. BlackRock IBIT has been the main outflow for several consecutive days. Some individual ETFs saw inflows, but the scale is far less than the outflows of IBIT and GBTC, and the overall trend has not yet reversed.
The continued outflow of ETFs indicates that institutional funds are still in retreat. When the largest institutional buying shifts to continuous selling, the price support is withdrawn. This is not a marginal bearish signal, but rather a structural core suppression.
The current fund flow is quite emotional: ETF institutions are making a hasty exit, continuously selling BTC, especially BlackRock. Retail investors are buying BTC to take up the slack. Ultimately, who is right or wrong will be revealed with time.
The recent rebound in Bitcoin was completely driven by Trump’s remarks, leading to a short-term surge. The market is increasingly influenced by news and institutions, making one nostalgic for the simpler trading days of earlier years. Bitcoin rose from 60,694 to 63,800, an approximate increase of 5%. Market opinions are polarized; some believe that 60,000 has firmly established a bottom, while others assert that this is just a weak rebound. I still maintain the view that 60,000 is by no means the true bottom, and this rebound is likely to encounter resistance around 64,500. When the Bank of Japan raises interest rates on June 15 to 16, the market will likely turn downwards.
This rise originated from relevant geopolitical news, but subsequently, Iran has clearly denied the content of the related agreements, meaning that the entire rebound is built on false expectations; the bubble will eventually be squeezed out. Looking at the chart, it's clear that the trading volume during the rebound has not effectively expanded, and after the price reached 63,800, it has demonstrated a clear inability to rise further. In simple terms, it is merely a technical rebound caused by short covering, not true bullish capital entering the market.
Currently, the characteristics of market volume are very evident; during downtrends, capital escapes enthusiastically, while the rebound phase continues to see reduced volume, with buyer strength clearly weak, indicative of a typical bearish market. In the four-hour trend, the rebound highs are continually declining, and the price is oscillating repeatedly in a low range for an extended period, all patterns suggest that this is merely a consolidation in the course of a downturn, with no signs of building a bottom or reversing.
On-chain dynamics also hint at this trend; after entering June, many large holders with significant positions have been gradually liquidating their chips and cashing out, resulting in considerable overall losses, which is a clear sign of weak selling behavior. Currently, market trading activity has significantly declined, and relevant funds are continuously flowing out, with insufficient support from the market.
The macro pressures the market will face next are considerable; the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is basically a foregone conclusion. Historically, every interest rate hike triggers a concentration of arbitrage funds for liquidation, dragging risk assets down significantly. Coupled with the previous price premium from geopolitical news now lacking support, and simultaneous meetings by the Federal Reserve, various factors overlapping may further tighten global liquidity, continuing to suppress the market.
Currently, the resistance around 63,800 to 64,500 is very strong, and it is quite challenging for the price to continue breaking upward. The 60,000 threshold has been repeatedly tested, and the support strength has already weakened significantly; once it effectively breaks down, the price is likely to first go towards the 57,100 to 58,000 range, with the final target of this adjustment looking towards 42,000 to 45,000.
In terms of operations, just maintain the existing strategy; do not blindly chase after highs at the current price level, and maintain high-positioned shorts. If the subsequent rebound encounters resistance in the 64,500 to 65,500 range, or if it drops below the 60,000 threshold after the interest rate hike, one can choose to increase shorts. Overall, stop loss should be unified at the 66,500 to 67,000 position. When operating, remember to control the position, keeping it within 25%, along with low leverage for proper risk protection.
Don’t let various news disrupt your judgment; markets driven by false news are ultimately not sustainable. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is the key node that will affect future trends; while it seems calm now, there are indeed undercurrents flowing. Just view the overall downward trend accordingly.
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The above is just a personal market view and exchange sharing, not forming any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and high risk; please participate rationally and bear your own profits and losses.
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