After a slight rebound in Bitcoin's intraday market, it began to retest the lows, reaching around 64500 in the evening. Ethereum peaked at around 1810 before pulling back to around 1740. The overall market briefly entered a rebound mode in the evening, and it is likely that a small rebound will occur before continuing the downward trend. The specific thoughts are as follows:

First, from a fundamental perspective:
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is currently underway, with the decision set to be announced in the early hours of June 18. The market almost fully anticipates that interest rates will remain unchanged, but the focus is on the statement regarding future policy directions from the newly appointed Fed Chair, Waller. The market probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within 2026 has fallen to 0%, while the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points in December has reached about 70%. Federal funds futures indicate that investors expect the probability of a rate hike before December 2026 to exceed 80%.

On June 15, the US and Iran confirmed a ceasefire understanding memo, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. Boosted by this, Bitcoin prices experienced a period of rebound, as the retreat of geopolitical risk premium provided certain support for risk assets. Therefore, recent short positions should pay attention to light holdings to speculate; what we fear most in trading is the uncertainty of fundamentals. On one hand, there is downward pressure based on the charts; on the other hand, there is short-term support from fundamentals, but I personally believe that the impact of news is only temporary, and ultimately, it will return to technical analysis.

In the evening, Bitcoin's daily line quickly retracted after briefly breaking the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The recent rebound has not changed the bearish alignment of the moving averages, with the 21-day moving average near 67800 acting as resistance above, along with the upper Bollinger band and the 144 moving average near 67400. There is short-term resistance near the current price of 66300, as well as resistance around 66666 to (67400-67800). Strong resistance is expected around 68500, which is likely difficult to reach. These several resistance ranges can be lightly positioned for another speculative short, with specific strategy thoughts as follows:

For Ethereum, pay attention to the resistance around 1795 to 1820 and near 1908, with support below at 1740, 1680, 1640, 1780, and 1500.

Currently, the fundamentals dominate the market, and everything should focus on light trading operations; one should not blindly go all-in! Pay special attention to Waller's speech in the early hours, as this is solely my personal opinion.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。