I have always been very concerned about the A-shares.

Previously, my view on this round of A-shares was largely an intuition:

I felt that since it had been in a sideways trend for such a long time, there should be a round of market movement ------ it is a concentrated release of the dividends from the reforms and opening up of the past decades, as well as a necessity to stabilize society and boost consumer confidence after the real estate crash.

However, this was merely an intuition, and I was not too confident about whether there was any solid internal logic to the market's activation. For example, the country's strong push for hard technology innovation and the domestic substitution of key industries in recent years.

Regarding this logic, I have always been uncertain about whether it can have a comprehensive driving effect.

Looking back at the main development lines over these years, we can all see:

In order not to fall behind the U.S. in the upcoming technological competition, the country has mobilized national strength to comprehensively tilt resources, talent, and funding towards various technological tracks.

Under this absolutely unshakeable policy and national strategy, the stock market must also develop in this direction and serve this goal. What the stock market can do for this is to provide comprehensive financing convenience for the listing of high-tech companies.

The series of policies issued in intensive succession by the Securities Regulatory Commission over the past year or two is the best explanation. For example, one of the policies requires that companies listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board must have their sponsors make mandatory investments through their subsidiaries.

The impact of these policies on listed technology companies is evident, such as the rise of "Cold King" and the astonishing price-to-earnings ratios on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board.

Although I also pay attention to these policies and the development of these tech stocks, I subconsciously always feel: which past bull market didn't have stars propped up by policy? Which bull market has been short of "meme stocks"?

But recently, when I saw a set of data, I was still a bit shocked.

Changxin Storage, which is about to go public, can be said to be a hot target in the domestic storage field. Among the many brokerages that have invested directly in Changxin Storage, China Merchants Securities holds a relatively large share (approximately 500 million shares in total).

If Changxin Storage goes public, based on the current neutral valuation, the book value of the shares held by China Merchants Securities will be nearly 9 billion.

What does this mean?

China Merchants Securities' profit for the entire last year was only 12.35 billion, and now this investment alone exceeds 70% of last year's profit.

If calculated according to a more optimistic market valuation, then the book value of these shares would exceed 17 billion, far surpassing China Merchants Securities' profit for the last year.

China Merchants Securities is not an exception; other brokerages are facing similar situations.

Next, not only Changxin Storage but also many technology companies are in line for IPOs.

If the proportion of circulating shares at the time of listing is controlled well, the prices of these stocks could perform beyond expectations.

Brokerages hold a considerable number of direct investment IPO companies. When those companies go public, what will happen to the book value of the shares held by brokerages?

Under the direct influence of this policy, the logic of brokerages has undergone a significant change since this round of market. How could the imagination of relying on nature be greater than the imagination of holding these tech stocks?

Moreover, brokerages themselves are particularly popular targets among retail investors. Now, with the added imagination from tech stocks, I can hardly imagine what will happen next if retail investors go crazy.

This effect is now becoming increasingly evident, and the logic is becoming clearer and clearer.

The country's effort to promote the development of various technology industries will be a national policy and guideline that will last for at least the next decade. Under the promotion of this national policy and guideline, state-owned capital will lead a comprehensive effort to guide social capital into the stock market to support the development of technology companies, which will also be a trend for development for at least the next decade.

This logic will run through the development of A-shares for at least the next ten years.

If this logic is to continue in the long run, how the country mobilizes such a large amount of funds for sustained investment and what sacrifices this operation will entail, I do not know, but this path is likely to continue.

The technological competition with the United States has already begun, and there is still a long list of technology companies that the stock market is preparing to welcome: large models, robotics, embodied intelligence, AI hardware, quantum computing, commercial aerospace, ...

Each of these industries will blow up a magnificent bubble driven by funds, but when it collapses, it will also be devastating.

Note: I do not hold any of the listed companies mentioned in the article, nor is the article a recommendation for readers to buy brokerages or any tech stocks, much less a recommendation for readers to participate in A-shares.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。