The cryptocurrency market has consecutively recorded three trading days of medium bullish lines, with Ethereum showing even stronger performance, continuously pushing upwards. The overall trend is clearly stronger than Bitcoin. It is worth noting that during this round of price increases, there has been almost no substantial pullback; the market has mainly relied on 15-minute, 30-minute, and other smaller time frames to continually elevate the center of gravity, which is characteristic of a typical sustained short squeeze market.

However, as the gains continue to expand, **the technical divergence signals are also strengthening simultaneously.** Yesterday, multi-timeframe top divergences appeared, and the divergence structure is still ongoing today, spreading to larger timeframes. Meanwhile, the daily line is gradually entering a high region, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of chasing the rally has clearly decreased.

Although the market may still maintain a minor one-sided upward trend, at this position, one should be more cautious of the risk of chasing highs. If a rapid volume surge occurs along with a short-squeeze breakout, it is instead more suitable to wait for high positions to short, rather than blindly chasing long positions.

Considering today is Saturday, overall market liquidity is usually weaker, and in the absence of significant news stimuli, it is more inclined towards high-level consolidation, rather than continuing a one-sided upward move.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Currently, it maintains a high-level consolidation judgment, with short-term attention focusing on adjustments within the one-hour level.

This round of rises started from an important support area around $58,000, subsequently impacted by weak non-farm data in the U.S., leading to a cooling of interest rate hike expectations, which in turn warmed risk appetite, allowing Bitcoin to undergo a corrective rally.

From the performance of funds, the market currently resembles slow accumulation, steady buying, rather than a large influx of concentrated funds, hence the upward pace is relatively stable.

Next, attention should be focused on the **200-week simple moving average (approximately $62,658)** as a long-term important resistance level. If it cannot effectively break through with significant volume, this area is likely to become an important resistance for this round of rebound.

In addition, although short-term concerns about interest rate hikes have eased, there are still divergences in market views regarding the September policy path. Meanwhile, during the U.S. holiday period, market liquidity is low, transaction depth decreases, and prices are more likely to experience sharp fluctuations due to large orders, so trading should pay more attention to position control and risk management.

Overall, it is currently more suitable to wait for a pullback to confirm support or to wait for structural confirmation after a high. Blindly chasing long positions after consecutive increases is not advisable.

Support to watch: 61,500-62,000

Resistance to watch: 62,658, 63,000

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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and only represents personal views. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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