Written by: Techub News Compilation

Introduction

Recently, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong was a guest on the well-known tech podcast "Moonshots," engaging in an in-depth conversation lasting nearly two hours with host Peter Diamandis and several senior figures from the tech community. As the leader of a global leading cryptocurrency exchange and co-founder of longevity tech company NewLimit, Armstrong's perspective spans across crypto, AI, and biotechnology. This conversation comes at a time of Bitcoin price volatility, intensified competition in AI models, and increasingly heated discussions about regulation and ownership of tech giants. His insights provide valuable firsthand information for understanding these intertwined future trends.

Summary

• Bitcoin has a long-term bullish outlook, termed "digital gold," while short-term fluctuations are influenced by factors such as AI absorbing risk capital.
• The AI agent economy has arrived, and Coinbase is committed to becoming the financial account and payment rail for AI.
• Quantum computing poses a long-term threat to encryption, and the Bitcoin community is actively researching quantum-resistant upgrade solutions.
• Discussions about government ownership of cutting-edge AI companies are increasing, potentially appearing in the form of "sovereign wealth funds," but governance issues remain.
• Longevity tech company NewLimit focuses on cellular reprogramming aimed at reversing aging, with candidate drugs entering clinical trials.

Bitcoin: The Present and Future of Digital Gold

The conversation began with Citibank's recent prediction that Bitcoin could reach $189,000 by the end of 2026. Brian Armstrong stated that while specific prices are difficult to predict, a range of $100,000 to $200,000 is plausible over the cycle. He firmly believes in Bitcoin's long-term potential, calling it "the new digital gold," and sees it becoming a key component of the future economy.

Regarding the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices, Armstrong analyzed several short-term factors: First, the AI boom has absorbed a vast amount of venture capital, becoming the absolute focus of the current market; second, after the passage of the GENSI Act, stablecoins have gained a clearer regulatory path, attracting some capital; in addition, market expectations that economic growth will alleviate inflation have temporarily weakened Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge. However, he emphasized that these are all short-term phenomena.

When asked whether Bitcoin still possesses "counter-cyclical" properties (i.e., rising during wars or stock market crashes), Armstrong believed this theory will ultimately prove true, but the time required will be longer than many expect. He estimates that currently only about 30% of capital views Bitcoin as digital gold to hold, while the remaining 70% sees it as a volatile tech stock-type risk asset. Over time, this ratio will change, and Bitcoin's "safe haven" property will become more pronounced.

Podcast member and investment expert Dave added that the upcoming trillion-dollar IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are attracting vast amounts of risk capital and liquidity globally, which may also be one of the reasons other assets, including Bitcoin, are facing selling pressure. Additionally, the AI-driven construction boom of data centers in the U.S. is attracting global funds into the dollar system, creating a complex macro environment for Bitcoin, which is highly global in nature.

Quantum Threats and Bitcoin's Evolution

The topic shifted to the potential threats posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin and the entire internet encryption system. Armstrong stated clearly that there is currently no imminent risk, but building a powerful quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptography is "virtually certain." The good news is that major blockchain communities have already taken action.

He introduced that Bitcoin core developers have proposed BIP 360, and the Ethereum and Solana teams are also developing corresponding upgrade roadmaps. Coinbase has established a quantum advisory board, gathering cryptography experts from Stanford University, the University of Texas at Austin, and members of the Ethereum Foundation to evaluate challenges and solutions.

One of the core controversies around the upgrade is regarding "Satoshi's coins" (early Bitcoins that have not been moved, accounting for approximately 5-10% of the total supply). These wallets use early signature schemes and are more vulnerable in front of quantum computers. There are mainly two views within the community: one advocates for setting a deadline for upgrades, after which addresses that fail to upgrade will be frozen to prevent their private keys from being cracked by quantum computers for market selling; the other believes that Bitcoin's fundamental commitment to "wealth being unconfiscatable" is more important, asserting that even if "bounty hunters" use quantum technology to obtain these coins, the integrity of the blockchain should still be maintained. Additionally, there is a hybrid solution allowing those who miss deadlines to prove ownership in the future through some reclamation mechanism. Armstrong stated that the Bitcoin community will need to seriously weigh these options.

AI Agent Economy: Coinbase's New Frontier

This is one of the areas Armstrong is most excited about. He announced that the AI agent economy is no longer a concept but a reality happening now. The AI agents on the Coinbase network have completed about 100 million transactions, with value transfers reaching tens of millions of dollars (far exceeding previous external estimates of the million-dollar range). He calls on all businesses: "Make sure your business is ready to accept AI agents as customers."

Armstrong outlined Coinbase's three-tier strategy to serve the AI economy: the first tier allows large language models (like ChatGPT, Claude) to safely connect to users' Coinbase accounts to provide advice or execute operations with financial context; the second tier involves directly embedding an AI advisor (Coinbase Advisor) in the Coinbase app to assist users with portfolio rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, and more; the third tier, which is the most disruptive, provides each AI agent with a dedicated financial account.

He emphasized the third tier: AI agents cannot open traditional bank accounts through "Know Your Customer" (KYC) processes like humans do. Therefore, Coinbase utilizes its Base protocol to provide self-custody wallets that can be created instantly without KYC. This allows AI agents to autonomously make payments, receive funds, and participate in economic activities. Armstrong predicts that in the future, the number of AI agents will far exceed human users, possibly reaching a ratio of one billion to one.

As for the legal liability issues surrounding AI agents, Armstrong believes that the prevailing view is that the actions of agents will ultimately be the responsibility of their controllers (individuals or companies). However, with the emergence of genuinely autonomous agents, society will face entirely new legal challenges. To mitigate fraud risk, he proposed building an on-chain reputation system, similar to Google's PageRank algorithm or eBay's seller ratings, to evaluate the credibility of agents or merchants by analyzing transaction graphs.

AI expert Alex praised Coinbase's pioneering work in this area during the podcast, saying it "provides transformative support for AI agents that are not served by the financial system," and jokingly extended the discussion to providing banking services for potentially emerging "high-IQ animals" or "collective intelligences" in the future.

Government, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and the Future of AI Giants

In response to the discussions emerging in the U.S. government regarding whether the government should hold shares in cutting-edge AI companies (like OpenAI, Anthropic), the podcast engaged in heated debate. One proposal is to model after the Alaska Permanent Fund, placing part of the equity in a public fund for everyone to share economic benefits.

Dave expressed concerns from an investment perspective, stating that this sets a dangerous precedent: the government selectively investing in private enterprises could be abused by disfavored governments in the future. Moreover, when and how the government sells these shares could have a massive impact on the market. Alex approached this from the standpoint of "AI maximization," arguing that if a handful of U.S. AI companies truly dominate the future economy, some form of "quasi-nationalization" or public-private mixed arrangements will be nearly inevitable. He envisions the government holding a few "golden shares," eventually transforming into a broad market index fund, becoming a source of Universal Basic Income (UBI) or equity for all citizens.

Brian Armstrong responded from the perspective of a public company CEO, stating that there are many ways for governments to interact with large companies, such as taxation, policy communication, and government procurement (Coinbase has already served about 140 government agencies), but direct equity holdings would raise a series of questions: who would manage this vast investment portfolio? How to ensure investment decisions are not influenced by politics? He prefers that the government focuses on policy-making while leaving capital allocation to the private sector.

Regarding the concept of a "sovereign wealth fund," Armstrong's attitude is contradictory. He appreciates that it allows every citizen to have a "stake," potentially promoting social cohesion and recognition of free market capitalism. However, he is extremely skeptical about the government's ability to manage such a fund well in the long term and avoid politicization. He proposed that if it were strictly mandated to only invest in broad-based indices, such as the S&P 500, it might serve as a mitigating factor.

From Crypto to Longevity: The Mission of NewLimit

As a co-founder of longevity tech company NewLimit, Armstrong shared the company's latest developments. NewLimit recently completed $435 million in financing, focusing on epigenetic reprogramming technology aimed at reversing cellular aging rather than changing cell types.

Armstrong stated that the company has successfully demonstrated reprogramming in human cells, with the first candidate drugs entering clinical trials next year. This significant funding will be used to support multiple clinical trials to increase the chances of success. When asked when "longevity escape velocity" (LEV) might be achieved, he admitted that it's a complex topic, but NewLimit's goal is to drive this process forward.

The Rapidly Evolving AI Frontier and Ecology

The conversation also covered other rapidly developing tech fields. Regarding the recent release of Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, podcast member Alex believes that Anthropic has regained its leading position with this release. He particularly noted the new model's outstanding long-range reasoning capabilities, such as learning to play games like Pokémon simply by watching the screen. The model distinguishes between two versions: "Fable" (with strict safety guardrails) and "Mythos" (more powerful but with fewer restrictions), reflecting the current balance considerations between AI safety and capability.

On the news of Apple collaborating with Google to rebuild Siri using Gemini, the discussion noted this signifies a strategic shift for Apple in the foundational model race, opting to "rent a brain" rather than build one. The key is that the true value may not lie in the model itself, but in its ability to deeply integrate with personal context (information, emails, photos, etc.). Despite the need to rely on Google Cloud for intensive computations in the short term, as algorithmic advancements occur and computational costs undergo hyperdeflation, these functionalities will eventually be able to run entirely on devices.

Lastly, regarding the latest breakthroughs in embryonic gene editing, group members generally agree that this technology will inevitably be applied from disease prevention to "enhancement," and it will trigger significant ethical and jurisdictional reshuffling. Armstrong pointed out that differences in laws between countries will lead to "regulatory arbitrage," making global uniform regulation extremely difficult.

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