Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Golem（@web3_golem）

The bull is back. In the early morning of August 20, Beijing time, Trump's speech at a White House gathering of cryptocurrency industry executives was positive, causing Bitcoin to rise and break through $70,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%（Related reading：A night of cryptocurrency surge, what did Trump say?）. The "crypto president" has returned, and the bearish market for Bitcoin is about to end. After today, many individual investors may shift more attention and funds from AI stocks back to the cryptocurrency market.

However, traditional financial institutions and asset management giants, always "one step ahead," had already completed their Bitcoin accumulation before Trump's positive news arrived. According to the 13F quarterly reports disclosed by major institutions, in the second quarter of 2026, although Bitcoin dropped by 14%, institutional holdings increased by 7.5%, which means that institutions have been continuously expanding their positions before the Bitcoin market warmed up.

Who are these institutions quietly increasing their Bitcoin exposure? Will we see Bitcoin below $65,000 again? Has the bottom of the bear market been confirmed? Odaily Planet Daily will tally the institutions that disclosed an increase in Bitcoin exposure in the 13F filings, as well as their perspectives on Bitcoin's subsequent market trends.

Institutions Increasing Bitcoin Exposure

The main entry for institutions increasing Bitcoin exposure is Bitcoin spot ETFs and stocks of Bitcoin treasury companies.

2026 Q2 Institutional Bitcoin ETF Holdings Increased by 7.5%

First, looking at the overall data, according to Bitcoin analyst Root, in the second quarter of 2026, the total holdings of ETFs decreased from 1,297,010 BTC to 1,211,322 BTC, a decline of 6.6%, but institutional holdings increased from 498,389 BTC to 535,723 BTC, a growth of 7.5%, with the share of institutional holdings rising from 38.4% to 44.2%, setting a new historical high. This indicates that while retail investors significantly reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions during a poor crypto market, institutions were continuously accumulating positions at the bottom.

However, not all institutions are increasing holdings of Bitcoin ETFs; the increases are mainly concentrated among top institutions. Statistically, the number of institutions holding Bitcoin in the second quarter decreased from about 2,000 in the first quarter to nearly 1,900, a decline of approximately 6.8%; however, among the top 25 Bitcoin ETF holders, 17 institutions increased their holdings in the second quarter.

This indicates that for most institutions, firmly holding Bitcoin during a bear market is quite challenging. Nevertheless, according to Root, in the second quarter of 2026, there were still 9 institutions that configured over 100 Bitcoins for the first time.

Below, Odaily Planet Daily will detail some top institutions that disclosed an increase in Bitcoin exposure in their 13Fs.

Jane Street: Bitcoin ETF Exposure Increased by Approximately $600 Million, Increased Over $200 Million in MSTR

As of June 30, Jane Street disclosed its total value of Bitcoin spot ETFs at approximately $990 million, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT totaling $828 million, about 24.9 million shares. In the first quarter of 2026, Jane Street reported a total value of Bitcoin spot ETF holdings of only $225 million, about 5.9 million shares, indicating an increase of approximately $600 million in Bitcoin ETF exposure from Q1 to Q2.

Additionally, Jane Street significantly increased its holdings in Strategy (MSTR) stock, rising from 209,833 shares (valued at about $26.2 million) in the first quarter to 2,677,622 shares (valued at about $232.76 million) in the second quarter, an increase of about 2,467,789 shares, or approximately 1,176%, worth over $200 million.

Overall, in the second quarter of 2026, Jane Street increased its Bitcoin exposure by over $800 million.

However, it's important to note that Jane Street's situation differs from ordinary asset management institutions; 13F only discloses long positions in ordinary stocks (excluding options, shorts, etc.). As a typical quantitative trading/market-making institution, Jane Street may hold short positions in Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR, meaning the actual Bitcoin exposure may be skewed. Even if its long positions cannot be simply understood as long-term directional bets, the scale is still quite impressive.

BlackRock: Q2 Bitcoin Exposure Increased by Approximately $290 Million

In the second quarter, BlackRock increased its investments in three Bitcoin-related assets: Strategy (MSTR), IBIT, and Strive (ASST).

In Q2, BlackRock raised its MSTR holdings from about 17.75 million shares to 19,394,284 shares (valued at $1.69 billion), increasing by 1,640,399 shares (valued at about $238 million), with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 9.24%.（Note from Odaily Planet Daily: BlackRock's statistics differ from those of Jane Street; this article relies primarily on the data disclosed in the 13F filings.）

Additionally, BlackRock increased its own Bitcoin spot ETF holdings, IBIT, by 1,024,742 shares (valued at about $41.7 million), totaling 15,034,046 shares by the end of Q2, worth approximately $500 million. Finally, BlackRock also increased its holdings in Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) by 1,636,854 shares (valued at approximately $17.86 million), with an increase rate of 45.1%, totaling 5.266 million shares by the end of Q2, worth $57.5 million, with Strive currently holding over 20,000 Bitcoins.

Therefore, BlackRock's Bitcoin exposure increased by approximately $290 million in the second quarter.

JPMorgan: Increased Holdings of IBIT Worth $85.6 Million

In Q2, JPMorgan mainly increased its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT, boosting its IBIT holdings by 2,104,944 shares (valued at about $85.6 million), an increase of 25.35%, growing from 8,302,691 shares in Q1 to 10,407,635 shares, with total holdings valued at approximately $356 million.

UBS Group: IBIT Call Options Exposure Increased 24 Times in Q2

In Q2, UBS Group's direct holdings of IBIT stock also grew by 12%, reaching 407,890 shares (valued at approximately $13.6 million). The increase in direct holdings is relatively moderate, although it is still below the end of 2025 level (about 540,000 shares), it is higher than the level in Q1 of 2026 (364,000 shares), indicating an increased preference for Bitcoin exposure.

Compared to direct holdings, UBS Group's IBIT call options exposure surged 24 times in the second quarter, from approximately 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares, while the put options exposure dropped by about 53%, from about 303,000 shares to approximately 143,000 shares.

This demonstrates a clear bullish tendency from UBS Group (increasing buying rights while reducing selling rights), but the 13F does not disclose the strike price, expiration date, or actual costs, and the holdings may include client business, market-making or hedging activities, thus it may not fully represent proprietary directional bets.

Legendary Wall Street Hedge Fund ManagerPaul Tudor Jones: Ending the Ongoing Reduction of IBIT Since 2025

Legendary Wall Street hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones's Tudor Investment also increased its holdings of IBIT in the second quarter of 2026, ending Q2 with a total of 688,529 shares (valued at $22.9 million), an increase of 109,446 shares (valued at about $4.45 million) from the previous quarter's reported 579,083 shares, with an increase of 18.9%.

Although the absolute funding increase is relatively small, it ends Paul Tudor Jones's ongoing reduction of IBIT since 2025, which may indicate an optimistic wait-and-see attitude towards Bitcoin's subsequent trend. At the end of 2024, Tudor Investment peaked by holding over 8 million shares, valued at approximately $427 million; the current holdings are still about 91% lower than the peak.

Harvard University Endowment Fund: Stopped Reducing Bitcoin Spot ETF Holdings

The 13F filing submitted by Harvard University Endowment Fund shows that as of the end of the second quarter, its holdings of the Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT remained unchanged at 3,044,612 shares, with a market value of approximately $101.4 million.

Harvard University Endowment Fund had previously reduced its IBIT holdings for two consecutive quarters, with a peak in Q3 2025 of approximately 6.81 million shares (valued at about $443 million), reducing by 21% in Q4 2025 and another reduction of about 43% in Q1 2026 to the current level. This time, although there was no increase in Bitcoin exposure, it ended two consecutive quarters of reduction, which can still be interpreted as a wait-and-see optimism.

How Do Institutions View Whether Bitcoin Has Hit Bottom?

Institutions' views on Bitcoin's subsequent market trends can basically be divided into "the bear market has ended" and "has not yet reached the bottom."

The Bear Market Ending Faction

Today, Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark. Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun referenced his earlier tweet on January 28, 2023, reminiscing about a bear market, claiming, "The bear market has ended."

In contrast to Wang Chun's "succinct statement," Strive's CEO Matt Cole made a more thorough argument. Hebelieves Bitcoin will experience a historic bullish environment, as the dollar index has been in a structural downtrend, and we may currently be approaching a larger downward phase, making the next 5 to 7 years potentially one of the most favorable macro environments for Bitcoin. Matt Cole also mentioned that the current price of Bitcoin is relatively low from a historical perspective, and Strive is willing to take risks to continue buying Bitcoin here.

Standard Chartered has a bullish outlook for Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by year-end. Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, stated that with the U.S. Treasury expanding liquidity support for the long-term treasury market, Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026. He mentioned that the current key technical resistance level for Bitcoin is $65,500, and if the price breaks above this level, it may indicate that the bottom of this market cycle has been formed.

The latest report from 10x Research also pointed out that after several months of narrow fluctuations, Bitcoin has welcomed a breakthrough, indicating that this month's preferred strategy is to buy call options with a strike price of $70,000. This option was as low as approximately $300 on August 5, had dropped to $30 three days ago, and soared to a peak of $1,600, with the current trading price around $1,300.

10x Research also stated that a better trading strategy is a call spread with a September expiration and strike prices of $70,000/$80,000. This structure is more bullish while also retaining some flexibility.

The Bitcoin Has Not Yet Hit Bottom Faction

Even if Bitcoin has broken through $70,000, there are still cautious institutions that believe Bitcoin has not yet hit bottom.

CZ mentioned at the SALT conference held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that Bitcoin's "super cycle" has yet to materialize and is still in a bear market phase, adhering to a strict four-year cycle. However, CZ acknowledged that it is currently the most favorable time in the industry during his 12 years in the field.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes that current retail demand for Bitcoin is nearing the highest levels seen in the past two years, and historical data show a clear correlation between retail demand growth and local peaks in Bitcoin's price. Therefore, Darkfost thinks this could reflect retail investors' "impatience," necessitating a more sensitive reaction to Bitcoin's volatility. Greeks.live researcher Adam also reassured investors who missed out on Bitcoin, stating that even after Bitcoin broke through $70,000, implied volatility remains at 32%, with ample selling power and many trading opportunities still for buyers.

Asset management firm VanEck's latest report indicates that while Bitcoin is currently emitting "surrender signals" similar to the end of historical bear markets, data suggest that the market bottom has not yet been fully confirmed. They noted that among the 12 Bitcoin market surrender indicators tracked, eight have entered extreme regions, primarily measuring market pressures such as Bitcoin price retracement, miner profitability, and the percentage of holders at a loss.

However, historical performance has not shown these signals to indicate that a short-term bottom has been formed. VanEck's data reveals that when 8 to 12 indicators are triggered simultaneously in history, Bitcoin's average return over the following 90 days is approximately 12.8%, and over 180 days, about 32%, both below Bitcoin's long-term average levels (90 days 15.2%, 180 days 36.3%). Relevant signals have only shown relative advantages within a one-year cycle, thus they cannot guide long-term operations.

Glassnode also believes that Bitcoin's on-chain structure is still in the "surrender phase," with the cost basis for short-term holders of Bitcoin having dropped to about $68,500, lower than the real market average of about $75,800. At the same time, this round's relatively unrealized losses peaked at about 25%, significantly lower than the previous peak surrender phase exceeding 60%, which indicates that the extent of losses in this market round is relatively shallow, but the distribution is more dispersed, potentially requiring more time to complete the clearing.

Glassnode emphasizes that any price rebound currently should be viewed more as a local rebound rather than a fundamental shift in market trends.

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