Today, November 4th, Monday, marks the official start of the most significant week of the year in terms of international political and economic impact, which will also influence the global political and economic landscape for the coming years. This week is destined to be extraordinary!

First, the State Council of Dongda will hold its regular meeting from November 4th to 8th, which officially begins today. The reason this meeting is receiving high market attention is due to the announcement and implementation of a series of major fiscal and economic stimulus policies in the later stages of the meeting, which is of great significance for Dongda's economic development in the near future, especially in terms of boosting the stock and real estate markets. The timing of this meeting is also very clever; by the time it concludes, the results of the American presidential election will have normally been settled, and the Federal Reserve's November meeting will also announce whether to cut interest rates. Dongda only needs to announce relevant policies after the important events in the U.S. are settled, thus taking the initiative.

In the middle of the week, on November 5th, the voting for the American presidential election will close, and whether it will be Trump or Haha Sister taking office as president will likely be determined on the 6th or 7th. According to predictions from many international authoritative institutions, the probability of Trump being elected is 68%, significantly higher than that of Haha Sister. For the cryptocurrency market, if Trump is elected president, it will have a tremendously positive impact, representing a long-term benefit.

After the U.S. released the non-farm payroll data last week, the probability of the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point rate cut after the November meeting reached 99.5%, which is practically a certainty. The probability of continuing to cut rates by 25 basis points in December is also quite high. If Trump takes office, the U.S. will likely continue on a path of rapid rate cuts.

The series of major events expected to occur this week will undoubtedly have a profound impact on global capital markets, and it is anticipated that the capital markets will experience significant volatility under the influence of these events. Even if Trump can take office and provide long-term benefits to the cryptocurrency market, it does not necessarily mean that there will be a short-term surge. As ordinary small investors, we should try to avoid leveraging our bets; significant volatility, in other words, means deleveraging, and we must ensure proper protection.

Returning to the current BTC market, after Bitcoin reached a new rebound high of 76,360 on October 30, just a step away from the historical high, it did not maintain its strength but instead began a continuous downward adjustment, dropping to a low of 67,478 last night. Since Bitcoin did not choose to break upward but instead significantly retraced, the future trend prediction has become complicated.

First, let's look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The price rebounded strongly before reaching the historical high but failed to sustain, and is currently undergoing a downward adjustment at the daily level. The termination range of this adjustment is approximately between the previous dense trading area of 69,500-66,500. The key is to observe the strength of the upward movement after this adjustment ends. Since Bitcoin was unable to stabilize above 70,000 last week, the short to medium-term market has become more complex. If the bulls are strong, this upward movement will challenge the historical high again; however, if the bulls are weak and the rebound does not break the new high, then there is a risk of another downward turn.

As for how to choose a direction, it is likely that we will wait until the second half of this week when the presidential candidate is determined and the official rate cut is announced.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

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