If you had told me that crude oil would rally +56% in 49 trading days and that the S&P 500 would make new all-time highs in that environment & only be down -2.5% from those ATHs, I wouldn't have believed you...

Especially with 10Y Treasury yields making ~3 year highs.

But that's the exact environment we're in.

Crude since July 2, 2026: +56%

S&P 500 since July 2, 2026: +2%

Also...

Bitcoin since July 2, 2026: +29.6%

Given the context of the rally in crude oil and yields (as a result of geopolitical tension + resilient macroeconomic data), risk assets have actually performed extremely well.

Personally, I think that context is important.

In fact, I think it's signal.

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