Matrixport： $90000 is the key price for judging the trend of Bitcoin, and the wave of fund selling is coming to an end

According to BlockBeats, on March 21st, Matrixport released its weekly report stating that the recent wave of hedge funds selling Bitcoin may be nearing its end. In the past few weeks, both financing rates and benchmark rates have decreased, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has significantly reduced its open Bitcoin contracts, and selling pressure now seems to have been largely exhausted. However, Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase and is unlikely to challenge new historical highs in the short term. The peak building process of Bitcoin began with stronger than expected US employment data in early December 2024, which initially weakened the momentum of altcoins. Subsequently, at the mid December Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting, Bitcoin reached its peak. Although Bitcoin attempted to rebound again before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the collapse of Trump's Meme coin caused the entire Meme coin bull market to begin to ebb. This series of events led to the formation of the top of the altcoin, Bitcoin, and meme markets, pushing Bitcoin into its current consolidation phase. The Federal Reserve has now become a key factor in determining whether Bitcoin will break through this range or face deeper adjustments. Since Trump's election in November 2024, there has been a clear trend: wallets holding 100 to 1000 bitcoins (worth approximately $8 to $80 million) have become the dominant group. This may reflect the long-term accumulation of Bitcoin by family offices and wealth management institutions, especially in the context of increased regulatory clarity. This structural shift is one of the key reasons why the extreme 70-80% pullback in the past Bitcoin cycle is no longer expected. Although this week's Federal Reserve meeting was not enough to drive a significant rebound in Bitcoin and altcoins, it does mark a slight turn. Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will "ignore" the recent rise in inflation expectations and does not believe that Trump's tariffs will lead to sustained high inflation. The Federal Reserve will adopt a wait-and-see attitude rather than responding to these inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. Although growth expectations have been lowered, the Fed will tolerate temporary inflation risks. Combined with the slowdown of quantitative tightening, the tone of this meeting can be interpreted as moderate dovish, providing some downward support for Bitcoin and stocks. The Bitcoin price has been consistently below its 21 week moving average for the past three weeks, indicating that we are currently in a bear market. Interestingly, in the summer of 2024, we also experienced some brief bull bear signal transitions. We attach great importance to the 21 week moving average indicator, and as long as the closing price of Bitcoin is below $88574, we must acknowledge that we are in a bear market environment. If the closing price is higher than this level, it will shift towards a bullish stance.