Ethereum futures premium hits a nearly one-year low, Pectra upgrade will become a key node affecting the trend

BlockBeats news, on March 29th, according to Cointelegraph, the premium of Ethereum futures hit its lowest point in nearly a year, and traders see it as a bottom signal, indicating that the market may usher in a turning point. From the 26th to the 28th of this month, the price of Ethereum experienced a sharp drop of 9.3%, hitting $1860 for the first time in two weeks. This round of adjustment triggered a liquidation of ETH leveraged futures worth $114 million, further reducing the relative premium of futures to spot prices to the lowest level in nearly a year. Ethereum monthly futures typically maintain a 5% to 10% annualized risk premium due to delivery cycles, but since the price correction on March 8th, this indicator has remained below the neutral threshold. On October 10, 2024, after a sharp drop of 14% in two weeks, ETH's premium dropped to 2.6%. Subsequently, the price rebounded and the futures premium quickly rebounded to 7%. Some analysts point out that the sharp decline in Ethereum network activity directly weakens the attractiveness of ETH. Although the Layer2 expansion plan improves transaction efficiency, it leads to a shrinkage in the main network's transaction fee income. The competitive landscape faced by Ethereum has extended from the public chain level to the vertical field. Hyperliquid is participating in the competition of synthetic assets and perpetual contracts, while Berachain is also building a new model of cross liquidity pool pledged assets. What is even more severe is Ethena's $5.3 billion synthetic dollar protocol, which announced its migration from Ethereum to the independently developed Layer 120. The $100 million financing completed in December 2024 provides a guarantee for Ethena's ecological migration. With only a few weeks left until the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, investors need to focus on two major innovations: optimizing the underlying layer fees and improving the end-user experience. If the upgrade can substantially enhance the competitiveness of the network, ETH may regain its leading position in the altcoin market. Prior to this, the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. When the premium of Ethereum futures reaches freezing point, it represents not only a technical correction, but also a microcosm of the battle for ecological niche. Whether Ethereum can stand out in the L2 ecosystem backlash and competitor encirclement will be determined by the Pectra upgrade. Keen investors need to focus more on the substantial improvement of on chain fundamental indicators at this moment, rather than being fixated on mechanized 'bottom signals'.