“When are you going to become more risk on and buy altcoins?” Wow are we in uncharted territories. Here’s how I’m playing the markets. Current phase: Your portfolio should be defensive now. Think BTC, majority stablecoins, and some long-term protocols. (If you still have some trash, consider doing a portfolio cleanse - it’ll be good for your soul) I don't know if we're near the bottom but I'm ok deploying capital now. Buy Bitcoin. You can consider some long-term protocols. (My time horizon for the long-term in Crypto is around 1 year since everything changes so fast). What should you be looking at? Some of my criteria: • What’s going to be around a year from now? • What will still be relevant regardless of “narratives?” • Who’s still actively shipping and building despite the market conditions? • Who’s generating revenue? • Which protocols have moats that’ll help fend off copycats? A few off the top of my head include Mantle, Fluid, Aave, Pendle, Hyperliquid, etc. The biggest mistake you can make right now is being impatient and trying to trade these markets. I’m seeing some people eager to buy high-risk tokens. The problem is you don’t know how long these shit market conditions can last. Let’s say you buy a $20mc token now thinking you’re getting it cheap. If the market turns bullish around Q4, will that token or narrative still be relevant by then? Instead, just wait. It’ll have time to develop. Not every founder has the fortitude to survive the quiet times. Not all protocols can keep the attention. By waiting, you’ll get better risk-adjusted returns even if you miss the initial 20% move. Not losing money is just as good as winning. You don’t get “extra credit” for being able to trade in all conditions. What matters in the end is results. And I only play when the odds are stacked in my favor. Next Phase: How do you know when it’s time to become more risk on? First, I’m looking for more certainty in the macro environment. In this case, I want to see more clarity regarding the tariffs situation. We also have a few FOMC meetings come up. Are there going to be interest rate cuts? The market doesn’t become more risk on until the macro environment is more clear. Then, I just start looking at the usual indicators. • Use tools to track market sentiment • Look for increased on-chain dex volumes • More liquidity inflows / CEX inflows • Everything works top down. So we have to see BTC prices go up first. Once things become more bullish then I’ll start deploying capital in phases. Bull traps exist (but they won’t trap me). Be patient. Go touch some grass. The market will bounce back. Don't get chopped up before the fun begins again.