Will Bitcoin reach a new historical high between the third quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026? Analyzing multiple factors based on macroeconomic and market dynamics, the following is a brief summary of the core viewpoints: Short term volatility and Trump policies: Trump's economic plan may bring short-term market pressure by suppressing the US dollar and yields, and the market is currently digesting this new baseline. Medium term impact: tariff policy may reduce foreign purchases of US treasury bond bonds, forcing domestic absorption of more debt. Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity may benefit it in the medium to long term. Market sentiment and Federal Reserve response: The market may bottom out due to recession concerns, but when the recession truly arrives, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's loose policies. The Federal Reserve may ultimately cut interest rates and pave the way for further liquidity measures in 2026. Performance of altcoins: High quality altcoins may follow the trajectory of Bitcoin and find a bottom before the market recovers, while low-quality projects will be eliminated. Market participants tend to invest in high-quality assets such as Bitcoin when liquidity is tight, and then expand to other assets when liquidity improves. Short term uncertainty and patience: It is very difficult to predict market trends in the short term (1-12 weeks). It is recommended to be patient and plan to gradually increase risk exposure in the coming weeks or months. We are optimistic about the overall outlook starting from the first quarter of 2026. Overall, the above viewpoints emphasize the potential of Bitcoin in the next one to two years, while reminding investors to pay attention to macroeconomic trends and changes in market liquidity, rather than short-term price fluctuations.