My current thoughts on tariffs: - Tariff strategy is smart given US position. We have to do something different. - Ideal would be 5-10% blanket tariff on all imports, with removal of tariff on goods US wants to incentivize into the country - Tariffs of 30%+ is bad and unsustainable. Only makes sense as negotiating leverage but needs to come down in first few weeks - Will be hard to negotiate 100+ trade deals simultaneously, so we could see a new trade organization created where everyone agrees to same rules - China vs US is the main show. Everything else is an appetizer. Neither country wants to give in and both coming from position of strength. - Stocks will go back up with 1-2 rate cuts and a few positive announcements. - bitcoin is interesting asset if countries start devaluing their currencies as part of the trade wars Everything is moving quickly, so things can change in short periods. If tariffs end up at 5-10% then it is a big win and the policies will have intended impact.