When will the counterfeit market from November to December last year come back Many friends have left messages expressing interest in this topic, let's chat. We divide the BTC market into four stages, namely the main uptrend (11-12 last year) - high volatility (24.12-25.20) - volatile decline (25.2.20 present) - low volatility - and the main uptrend repeating itself. The knockoff market that everyone wants, similar to the one in November and December last year, only occurred from the end of the low-level oscillation to the early stage of the main uptrend to the high-level oscillation. And the difficulty of trading at other times is very unfriendly. Now is the stage of oscillation and decline. How to define high-level oscillation and oscillation and decline stages? Why is BTC falling below $89000? Because this is the lowest point for BTC short-term holders to get into the market, once it falls below, short-term holders will lose money and market sentiment will change, unlike the FOMO sentiment in November and December last year. Why is it currently a period of fluctuating decline, not a period of low-level fluctuations? BTC starts with 7 and is so low. OK， Although Europe and the United States are still unhappy, China and the United States have moved towards a "good agreement", and the US stock market and BTC have gradually become desensitized to tariffs and returned to macro monetary policy. As mentioned earlier, the economic data GDP for Q1 will be released on April 30th, followed by the inflation and employment situation for April in May, and the next GDP release will be at the end of July and then in October. pay attention to ⚠️ The definition of a US economic recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline and an increase in unemployment rate, with a minimum of 4.3 or above. Simply put, the upcoming interest rate cuts will be initiated either due to the Federal Reserve's expectation of a recession or due to the favorable economic conditions and reduced inflation. It is more likely to be the former. That means there is still a possibility of a decline in the risk market. (Don't expect funds to hedge against BTC, as this actually has a lucky mentality and can bring a small amount of funds into BTC, because more funds will still choose gold.) So the extent of this decline also depends on the duration and depth of the recession, if it is only a mild and shallow recession. Assuming that interest rates are cut in June or July (or a temporary suspension of balance sheet reduction is announced), the economy may quickly recover and the unemployment rate will not continue to soar. If that happens quickly, Q4 could see a gradual economic recovery. After the risk market bottomed out, it entered a period of low-level volatility and gradually improved. Simultaneously release good policies, such as reducing SLR, tax cuts, and so on. So overall, a new main uptrend is about to begin brewing (this is the true market reversal). If it is a deep recession, the risk market may continue to decline, the low-level oscillation stage will be delayed, and the recovery time will be postponed. Finally, pay attention ⚠️ The opportunity to the right of the major trend occurs at the end of the low-level oscillation. It's still early now.