Can BTC hit a new high or higher? From the chart of realized value net position changes in the overall market, this indicator reflects the total net position changes of the largest and most core assets in cryptocurrency. Net capital inflows are usually reflected through the realized market value growth of mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, or the increase in the supply of stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and BUSD. The realized market value can accurately capture the real capital inflow and outflow dynamics. As can be seen from the chart, if compared with the current situation at three key time points, after experiencing a period of stagnation since April, the realized market value of BTC has still increased by about $30 billion. The current price is approaching its previous high (around $105000), and the net holdings of stablecoins also show a recovery in capital inflows, but its speed still lags behind the strong increase in holdings during November December 2024. At that time, the net increase in stablecoin holdings exceeded $11 billion, while currently it is only around $6.4 billion. That is to say, in the case of similar prices, the financial support is significantly weaker. This trend of capital inflow is very similar to the rhythm and structure of the rebound from May to July last year: prices rebounded but the underlying capital momentum was insufficient, resulting in limited sustainability of the upward trend. Looking back at the market from October to December 2024, there were several key driving factors at that time: The precautionary signal of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has officially shifted towards easing; • With the warm-up of the US general election, Trump's advantages in public opinion polls have gradually been established, and it has publicly expressed its support for cryptocurrency; The market sentiment continues to heat up, driving a large-scale inflow of stablecoins and accelerating the rise of the market. At present, from the end of April to now, although Trump has partially turned to its position, such as suspending tariffs and re discussing trade agreements, the total amount of capital return brought by its stimulus is limited, only bringing about a recovery of several billion dollars, and the market sentiment has not continued to rise. In addition, there are still many uncertain factors in the future, including: There are still doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut at its June 19 meeting, as CME interest rate futures show a probability of over 90% that there will be no rate cut in June; If the interest rate cut is postponed, it may take time for the net holdings of stablecoins to increase significantly again; There is currently a 'expectation gap' in the market, and there are not enough 'new stories' to support capital to accelerate entry. Therefore, although the current price of BTC is close to historical highs, it is still necessary to maintain rationality and objectivity in terms of capital inflows and market sentiment. The further upward trend of the market cannot be separated from the continuous inflow of real gold and silver.