The Bitcoin Cycles 📚 Every cycle we see the same thing: "This cycle will be longer/shorter because...". So far, every cycle BTC has seen has been nearly identical in duration and generally lasts ~4 years from top to top (or bottom to bottom). The biggest argument for this has always been the halving which occurs every 4 years. Whatever it is that has made this happen to this point or what might break it in the future, I still don't like speculating on this trend ending until it actually has ended. It has been the only consistent pattern/trend in crypto's existence. The fact that there seems to be a consensus that this time is once again different, only makes me want to stick with it more. Yes, there's dozens of reasons why this can break and yes, BTC is bigger, more mature, reacts more to macro events, we have ETFs etc. But personally I do think it's good to have a rough guideline in your head when investing and going through these cycles, instead of basing your entire cycle expectation on whether last week's candlestick was green or red. We've already seen many people call for a top earlier this year which were proven wrong. Now I see people calling for the cycle to last until late 2026 or beyond, which I think is stretching it too far. Obviously I'll be nimble to adapt if this does change. But until proven otherwise, the 4 year cycle is still a good guideline for me and the closer we get to the 4 year's ending by end of 2025, the more I'll be scaling out. Just as I did last cycle in 2021. This tweet says nothing about my current expectation in the short term. I think Summer is somewhat uncertain and I don't have a strong opinion on that. This post is mostly referring to late 2025 and cycles in general.