The side effects of tariffs make Trump wary Tariffs are a double-edged sword that, while restricting imports to promote the return of manufacturing, increasing government tax revenue, and limiting the benefits of neighboring countries, also comes with potential side effects that could erupt at any time Firstly, there is the issue of imported inflation. High tariffs may push up import prices and stimulate inflationary pressures in the short term, posing a challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Secondly, there may be fierce countermeasures from neighboring countries, as well as protests or even retaliation from allied countries against the unilateral tariff policies of the United States. When tariffs threaten the capital market and the interest costs of the US government, Trump will be very nervous and immediately release positive news about tariffs to rescue market sentiment Therefore, the destructive power of Trump's tariff policy is limited, but when the sudden news of tariff comes out, the price of stock market and Bitcoin will fall back Therefore, it is appropriate to view tariffs as a benign adjustment tool for Bitcoin. With the expectation of a US recession decreasing, the possibility of tariffs alone creating a black swan is very low, because Trump will not let the negative impact of the event increase interest costs