OKG Research: GENIUS Act Coming Soon, Incremental Market Logic and Structural Alternative Path for Compliant Stablecoins 🏛️ GENIUS Act promotes stablecoins to enter the 'financial infrastructure' system In June 2025, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act with a procedural vote of 68:30, and it is expected to complete the final legislation in the near future. This will be the first time that the regulatory framework for stablecoins has been clearly defined at the federal level in the United States. 📊 Market Structural Change Estimation: From 'Who Can Develop' to 'Who is Using' As of June 2025, the total market value of global stablecoins is approximately 250B; Among them, USDT accounts for about 62%, USDC for about 24%, and the remaining stablecoins (such as PYUSD, FDUSD, etc.) totaling about 14%; If the GENIUS Act is successfully implemented, the proportion of compliant stablecoins is expected to increase from 28% to 40-55%; The corresponding market value of newly added stablecoins is expected to be 60-150B. 🧭 Five core penetration scenarios and scale calculation of compliant stablecoins The fundamental value of compliant stablecoins lies in their ability to accommodate real-world capital flows. OKG Research has calculated the following five key incremental scenarios based on publicly available data and verifiable assumptions: one ️⃣ Cross border payment and B2B settlement: 80-240B/year The global annual transaction volume is approximately 39-53T; Assuming an initial penetration rate of 1-2%, with 20-30% of payments made through stablecoins. two ️⃣ Merchant acquiring and cardholder settlement: 34-169B/year Visa's annual transaction total is 33.8T; Assuming the initial penetration rate of compliant stablecoins is 2-5%, with 5-10% settling using stablecoins. three ️⃣ Enterprise financial management and short-term reserve fund allocation: 50-300B/year The total size of short-term cash and short-term bond funds held by global enterprises is about 5T; Assuming 10-20% of the funds are digitized, with 20-30% allocated as stablecoin assets. four ️⃣ RWA and on chain fund settlement: 30-50 B/year The current market value of RWA on the chain is 23.4B, and it is expected to reach 100 billion by 2026; assuming that 30-50% of the assets are subscribed, redeemed, and settled through compliant stablecoins. five ️⃣ Programmable payment: 25-50 B/year Enterprise level intelligent payments (such as supply chain automatic payment terms) are expected to reach 500B in the initial stage; assuming an initial penetration rate of 5-10%, all will be executed in compliant stablecoins. 📌 The total potential annual cash flow of compliant stablecoins is approximately 219-809B. 🎯 The first mover advantage and growth potential of USDC The current market value of USDC is 61B, accounting for approximately 60-70% of the compliant stablecoin market; If it maintains a market share of 40-50% in the five major scenarios in the future, its annual capital flow will reach 87-404B; Based on the demand for capital accumulation and turnover efficiency (i.e. capital flow ÷ required balance), the market value growth space can be calculated as follows: assuming a conservative estimate of 3-6 times the turnover rate (Velocity), USDC needs to undertake 87-404B of flow, and the required additional balance is approximately 15-135B; Compared to the current market value of 61B, the market value has a growth potential of approximately 1.5-3 times. 🧩 OKG Research: What truly determines the ceiling of stablecoin market value is who can handle more real-world capital flows. 📚 Data source and core hypothesis explanation ·Global Cross border Payment Market Size (39-53T): FXC Intelligence ·Corporate cash and short-term debt assets (5T): BNY Mellon/Treasury&Risk ·Market value of RWA on chain: http://RWA.xyz ·Smart Payment: JPMorgan Onyx/Reuters ·Stable Coin Velocity Assumption (3-6 Times Annual Turnover): Comprehensive @ Amberdata, @ NBER, @ Chainalysis Stablecoin USDC GENIUSAct CryptoRegulation DeFi RWA OnChainFinance CrossBorder payment DigitalDollar Tokenization ProgrammableMoney InstitutionalAdoption Web3Infrastructure OKGResearch