Today’s FOMC decision in 10 points 1.They keep interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth straight meeting, continuing the pause since December 2024. 2.Economic uncertainty has “diminished but remains elevated,” noting reduced ambiguity around tariffs but persistent macro risks. 3.2025 GDP growth forecast is cut to 1.4%, signaling cooling economy. 4.Inflation projection for 2025 raised to 3.0%, up from earlier estimates, partly due to tariffs. 5. Unemployment rate now expected to reach 4.5% by year-end, slightly higher than previous projections. 6. Dot plot: a median forecast of two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 bps, with projected rates at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. 7. Seven of 19 Fed officials foresee no rate cuts this year, reflecting growing division. 8.Interest rate futures now assign ~70% probability of a rate cut in September, with virtually no expectation for a July cut. 9.Powell has a cautious tone: highlights both emerging labor softening and the inflationary effects of tariffs. 10.Despite political pressure, including Trump’s call for 100 bps of cuts, Powell reaffirmed Fed independence, stating decisions will be guided solely by economic data.