I have three downward positions for this year's market forecast First position: Continuing the current macro environment High interest rates and tariffs drive up inflation Both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market will experience repeated fluctuations and bottoming out from this summer to early autumn, but Bitcoin is highly likely to hold at 100K ± 5%; The mainstream stock index also tends to form a wide range of fluctuations around the low point at the beginning of the year Second position: Surging oil prices, overflowing tariffs, and escalating regional conflicts Risk assets still have an additional 20% -30% downside potential: BTC may break through 80K, first tier knockoffs will fall another 50%, and small cap MEME/knockoffs will fall another 70% The third position is quite extreme, with a small but not non-existent probability of tail risks such as credit contraction and liquidity freeze Specifically, it may be: a war erupts in the Middle East or the Taiwan Strait, problems with mainstream stablecoins, a collapse of micro strategy models, etc BTC has the opportunity to see 60K, and over 90% of small tokens will directly reset to zero, which is already the worst-case scenario Actually, in my personal opinion, the worst-case scenario from now until Q4 is another wave of emotional killing, but it's more like a bottoming out rather than a catastrophic disaster. The most important thing now is to find possible turning point signals.