The points of the tweet yesterday morning have now been verified: 1) Trump wants to force Iran back to the negotiating table to accept the terms of the peace talks; 2) Iran has the ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but Khamenei has no determination to do so; 3) Iran's response of moderate intensity, rather than blocking the strait, has little impact on the market. 4) As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, it is difficult for oil prices to soar significantly. The short-term panic sentiment in the past will restore stability to the market and return to its own driving logic. But there is also an incorrect aspect: "If the situation in the Middle East is not completely eased, as mentioned on the 15th, oil prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall." If Iran and Israel really reach a complete ceasefire agreement, then oil prices should fall back to pre conflict levels, depending on whether Iran truly submits completely?